jerome powell

When Sentiment Shifts

By |2018-07-10T16:36:44+00:00July 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Like all sentiment surveys, Germany’s ZEW is susceptible to overzealousness on the part of the survey participants. The Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung is a think tank located in Manheim that has since 1991 carried out this broad questionnaire. Up to 350 analysts are included in the panel, each working at a bank, insurance carrier, or [...]

Already Back In The Red?

By |2018-06-28T17:35:33+00:00June 28th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In July 2014, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen testified before Congress. It was the usual Humphrey-Hawkins stuff, except in this instance at that particular time there was every reason to suspect things were finally changing. The unemployment rate, in particular, was sinking like a stone dropped in a pond. Some additional economic indicators signaled perhaps [...]

Dovish = Uncertain, Therefore Dollar

By |2018-06-15T17:17:56+00:00June 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Back a few months ago when Europe was booming, or at least everyone was sure that this one particular economy was, market futures prices indicated an expectation for the first European rate hike to take place by Q2 2019. That was consistent with the US Federal Reserve’s experience as well as how the mainstream narrative [...]

If Powell Is Angry And Disgusted, That’s A Small Positive

By |2018-03-27T20:40:17+00:00March 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to one research company, new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was disgusted and angry at his press conference yesterday. The firm, Prattle, employed facial recognition software to track Powell’s expressions throughout his inaugural press conference. By their count, he was disgusted 36 times, angry 41 times, and expressed contempt another five. Powell conveyed joy [...]

The X’s and Y’s Of Jerome Powell & The Long End, As Calculated by Eurodollar Futures

By |2018-03-13T19:29:16+00:00March 13th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the end-of-bond-bull-market-crowd, 3% is a line in the sand. There is no inherent significance in that number, except that it’s a round one. The benchmark 10s as of now trade with regard to that level as if it’s a ceiling. That’s what makes it so momentous. In 2013, the yield finally broke 3% the [...]

Really Looking For Inflation, Part 2

By |2018-03-07T12:45:14+00:00March 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Continued from Part 1 What these unusually weak productivity estimates lean toward is, quite simply, the possibility the BLS has been overstating jobs gains for years. In early 2018, there is already the hint of just that problem in a 4.1% unemployment that doesn’t lead to any acceleration in wages and labor income. What it [...]

Really Looking For Inflation, Part 1

By |2018-03-07T12:45:48+00:00March 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Most people have been looking at Jerome Powell’s Chairmanship of the Federal Reserve as continuity, a comprehensive extension of Janet Yellen’s (and therefore Bernanke’s). This would by nature include all the nasty habits Chairman Yellen had picked up during her one term. At the top of that list is the word “transitory”, particularly how it [...]

Does It Always Have To Begin In Farce?

By |2018-02-27T13:13:07+00:00February 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Imagine you live in a terrific neighborhood backed right up to a large wilderness. This heavily forested area has inside of it grown up a tremendous amount of underbrush. The local government, concerned for your property as well as those of your neighbors, starts making noises about taking care of the land before it dries [...]

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