job growth

Gallup’s Spending Analysis Confirms A Whole Lot

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2014-07-25T15:48:13-04:00July 25th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Gallup’s latest figures on consumer spending in June put to rest any idea of a major surge, completing a picture of the second quarter that is far more tepid than any weather-related symmetry with the first would have you believe. It has been an ongoing theme for several weeks as incoming estimates (aside from sentiment surveys that never mean what [...]

Payroll Corroboration, Or Lack of It

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2014-07-03T12:46:51-04:00July 3rd, 2014|Economy, Markets|

I spend a lot of my time analyzing these various economic accounts with the idea of flawed statistical inference never far out of awareness. The government agencies themselves spend a great deal of their effort in the same way. Ever since these accounts were “converted” to probability models, statistics is an important part of the “reliability” factor that nobody actually [...]

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