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Inflation Just Doesn’t Pass Math

By |2021-11-12T16:59:47-05:00November 12th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the first time since last December, the level of Job Openings (JO) pictured by the BLS’s JOLTS survey declined. End of the line for the economy?I am intentionally overselling this monthly minus. While the latest figure for September 2021 was indeed less than the one for August, if only because August’s estimate was raised by several hundred thousand. Going [...]

Taper Math, Lazy Labor Slander

By |2021-10-12T17:59:30-04:00October 12th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The number of Job Openings for the month of July were revised upward, the BLS now thinking there had been more than 11 million of them during that month. Companies seem to be desperate for workers, at least judging by this one measure. The latest estimate for August 2021 came in well short of either the revised figure (11.1 million) [...]

Turning The LABOR SHORTAGE Up to 11

By |2021-09-08T17:53:40-04:00September 8th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In Massachusetts, the Federal Reserve’s First District, restaurateurs have struggled mightily to find workers. As part of the central bank’s Beige Book, one contact of the Boston leadership said the industry was “facing the worst labor shortage he has seen in 35 years of experience.” In response to such a major threat, these firms become truly creative to try to [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Is It Time To Panic Yet?

By |2021-07-11T23:59:35-04:00July 11th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Until last week you hadn't heard much about the bond market rally. I told you we were probably near a rally way back in early April when the 10-year was yielding around 1.7%. And I told you in mid-April that the 10-year yield could fall all the way back to the 1.2 to 1.3% range. The bond rally since April [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Who’s The Boss?

By |2021-06-14T08:26:10-04:00June 13th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

I told you last week that there were strange things going on in the labor market but I had no idea how much of an understatement that really was. Much of last week's economic focus was on the inflation report but I think the JOLTS report may turn out to be more significant. Inflation was indeed pretty hot year over [...]

April’s Payroll Jolt, Because Unprecedented Number of Workers Just Quit?

By |2021-06-08T17:51:28-04:00June 8th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

April 2021’s payroll estimate (CES) was the “bad” one; at a revised +278,000 it was “supposed” to have been significantly better than the “good” one for March (+785,000, revised). Near three hundred thousand in any month before 2020 would’ve been celebrated as a near miracle (that’s just how bad the labor market has been for a long time). What made [...]

Here We Go Again: Following Big Payroll Miss It’s The Level of Hiring, Not Job Openings

By |2021-05-11T16:52:47-04:00May 11th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Because it was outdated by publication of the most recent payroll data for April 2021, the follow-up updated JOLTS estimates for March don’t end up having quite the same impact. In one sense, that’s unfortunate because they are once again providing another useful demonstration of the limitations over decoding the employment situation.Job Openings (JO), for one. Before getting to them, [...]

JOLTS Revisions: Much Better Reopening, But Why Didn’t It Last?

By |2021-03-11T19:49:16-05:00March 11th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to newly revised BLS benchmarks, the labor market might have been a little bit worse than previously thought during the worst of last year’s contraction. Coming out of it, the initial rebound, at least, seems to have been substantially better – either due to government checks or, more likely, American businesses in the initial reopening phase eager to get [...]

Old Numbers Show Us Why There’ll Be New Checks

By |2021-02-09T16:51:57-05:00February 9th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If the payroll numbers are old news because they aren’t supposed to matter anymore, what with TGA drawdowns and vaccines, then JOLTS figures one month further behind them must count for even less. Gradation does factor here, though, and that’s why it’s important to keep the current and slightly-in-arrears data in mind.What I mean is that the stimulus-frenzy narrative does [...]

Labor Shortage Under #1 Becomes Labor Bottleneck Under #2

By |2021-01-12T19:49:46-05:00January 12th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It doesn’t quite rise to the level of the LABOR SHORTAGE!!!! fiasco, not yet, but it’s moving up toward that territory. This, of course, had been during Inflation Hysteria #1 when at its absolute peak the unemployment rate was being used to justify expectations for not just a little more in consumer prices but a lot more. In 2018, in [...]

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