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jobs report

Macro: Employment

By |2024-01-05T12:24:45-05:00January 5th, 2024|Economy|

The employment numbers came in progressively better throughout the week. Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US added 216,000 jobs in December. The following industries reported the largest gains: Leisure and Hospitality (Hotels, Restaurants, Gambling, Live Entertainment) -- 40,000 Health Care -- 38,000 Local Governments -- 37,000 Professional and Business Services (Accounting, Architecture, Computers, Consulting) -- [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Scare?

By |2021-11-01T08:01:59-04:00October 31st, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

A couple of weeks ago the 10-year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near-term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long-term inflation expectations were and are well behaved. I wrote nearly 2000 words last week about that change in inflation expectations and I'm so glad you [...]

Serious Bending Of The “V”

By |2020-05-08T16:29:46-04:00May 8th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Is it already priced in? Depends, of course, on who you ask and more importantly which market is carrying out the presumed discounting. Stocks surged on the idea that though this is epic in its misery we’re already getting past the worst. Short run disruption, a big one, but nothing more. It’s almost preprogrammed at this point: the data for [...]

The Return of The Perfect Payrolls

By |2018-03-09T12:23:24-05:00March 9th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Over the past two days, Chinese exports exploded, US payrolls bested 300k, and China’s CPI recorded the hottest inflation in 5 years. Globally synchronized growth? It’s times like these where remembering how nothing goes in a straight line helps settle and ground interpretations. In thinking that way already, you are never surprised when there are good even perfect data reports [...]

Chart of The Week; They Really Don’t Know What They Are Doing Version

By |2016-08-05T18:43:52-04:00August 5th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Given it is payroll Friday, it has to be a chart related to the futility of focusing on the headline number. There is any number of ways with which to accomplish this, but it serves well to highlight the relationship already presented in my view of this specific view of the payroll report. Economists often claim that the participation problem [...]

Payrolls: Trying To Find Meaning In The Meaningless

By |2016-08-05T12:23:52-04:00August 5th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The BLS released yet another perfect payroll report for July. It hit on all the major themes, putting further distance to the shocking May number. All the right people have been reassured by all the right parts. U.S. employment rose at a solid clip in July and wages rebounded after a surprise stall in the prior month, signs of an [...]

Robust Job Growth Doesn’t Make Sense And The Numbers Show Why

By |2016-02-04T18:37:46-05:00February 4th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With the BLS’s release of Q4 productivity figures, we get to check the BLS’s estimates just in time for tomorrow’s increasingly irrelevant payroll report. That much has become thoroughly apparent especially since the middle of last year as the Establishment Survey and unemployment rate only diverge with the overall breadth of economic indications. With GDP no longer corroborative, the labor [...]

Perfect Payrolls Again; Unremarkable And Irrelevant

By |2016-01-08T13:24:14-05:00January 8th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I think it entirely fitting, even useful in the long run, that December’s payroll report was yet another perfect month; the fourth of 2015 by my unofficial count. There was absolutely nothing wrong with any of the components, at least in the raw job count estimated by various statistical regressions and adjusted with imputations (wages, not so much). The problem [...]

Looking For ‘Strong’ Payrolls

By |2014-03-07T17:30:15-05:00March 7th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Before getting into the details of the monthly payroll frenzy, the idea of a “strong” jobs report needs to be addressed. The headline for ABC News was, Stocks Are Mixed Despite Strong US Jobs Report, while Forex News topline said, US Dollar Firms after Strong Jobs Report. As if each media outlet were simply copying from each other, everywhere you [...]

Thinking Things Over: There’s a Brighter Future Ahead….but When?

By |2012-06-03T19:28:50-04:00June 3rd, 2012|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Thinking Things Over     June 4, 2012 Volume II, Number 22:  There’s a Brighter Future Ahead….but When?  By John L. Chapman, Ph.D.          Washington, D.C. In a world of pure theory, stock and bond prices rise and fall according to the fundamentals of market reality, and exclusively so.  The strength of profits and free cash flow, sustainability of a firm’s competitive advantages, technological [...]

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