jobs report

The Return of The Perfect Payrolls

By |2018-03-09T12:23:24+00:00March 9th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Over the past two days, Chinese exports exploded, US payrolls bested 300k, and China’s CPI recorded the hottest inflation in 5 years. Globally synchronized growth? It’s times like these where remembering how nothing goes in a straight line helps settle and ground interpretations. In thinking that way already, you are never surprised when there are [...]

Chart of The Week; They Really Don’t Know What They Are Doing Version

By |2016-08-05T18:43:52+00:00August 5th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Given it is payroll Friday, it has to be a chart related to the futility of focusing on the headline number. There is any number of ways with which to accomplish this, but it serves well to highlight the relationship already presented in my view of this specific view of the payroll report. Economists often [...]

Payrolls: Trying To Find Meaning In The Meaningless

By |2016-08-05T12:23:52+00:00August 5th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The BLS released yet another perfect payroll report for July. It hit on all the major themes, putting further distance to the shocking May number. All the right people have been reassured by all the right parts. U.S. employment rose at a solid clip in July and wages rebounded after a surprise stall in the [...]

Robust Job Growth Doesn’t Make Sense And The Numbers Show Why

By |2016-02-04T18:37:46+00:00February 4th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With the BLS’s release of Q4 productivity figures, we get to check the BLS’s estimates just in time for tomorrow’s increasingly irrelevant payroll report. That much has become thoroughly apparent especially since the middle of last year as the Establishment Survey and unemployment rate only diverge with the overall breadth of economic indications. With GDP [...]

Perfect Payrolls Again; Unremarkable And Irrelevant

By |2016-01-08T13:24:14+00:00January 8th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I think it entirely fitting, even useful in the long run, that December’s payroll report was yet another perfect month; the fourth of 2015 by my unofficial count. There was absolutely nothing wrong with any of the components, at least in the raw job count estimated by various statistical regressions and adjusted with imputations (wages, [...]

Thinking Things Over: There’s a Brighter Future Ahead….but When?

By |2012-06-03T19:28:50+00:00June 3rd, 2012|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Thinking Things Over     June 4, 2012 Volume II, Number 22:  There’s a Brighter Future Ahead….but When?  By John L. Chapman, Ph.D.          Washington, D.C. In a world of pure theory, stock and bond prices rise and fall according to the fundamentals of market reality, and exclusively so.  The strength of profits and free cash flow, sustainability of [...]

General Motors: An Emblem of a Potemkin Economy

By |2012-03-12T11:33:31+00:00March 11th, 2012|Economy, Investing, Markets|

Thinking Things Over              March 11, 2012 Volume II, Number 10:  General Motors: An Emblem of a Potemkin Economy       By John L. Chapman, Ph.D.                                                                                                                     Washington, D.C. There were no private investors or companies out there willing to take a chance on the auto industry. Nobody was lining up to give you guys loans.  Anyone in the financial [...]

Weekly Economic and Market Review

By |2011-02-06T19:04:38+00:00February 6th, 2011|Economy|

"A wide range of market indicators supports the view that the Federal Reserve's securities purchases have been effective at easing financial conditions. For example, since August, when we announced our policy of reinvesting maturing securities and signaled we were considering more purchases, equity prices have risen significantly, volatility in the equity market has fallen, corporate [...]

Weekly Economic and Market Review

By |2010-05-09T13:32:28+00:00May 9th, 2010|Economy|

If not for the turmoil of Greek bailouts and computer glitch induced stock market bunge jumps the economic reports last week would have been big news. The stock market may or may not be telling us something about future economic activity but it can't be denied that current activity continues to accelerate to the upside. Led [...]