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john williams

Eurodollar Accounting

By |2020-09-18T18:14:13-04:00September 18th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One step forward, two steps back. Implicit in the Fed’s big strategy reviewed unveiled by Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell at the end of August was an admission that policymakers had screwed up. No minor detail, either, they have messed up big time on the big stuff. Though failing to be explicit about it is so infuriatingly cowardly, it’s at [...]

The Real Labor Market

By |2020-02-11T17:11:34-05:00February 11th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As you might imagine, inflation was the hot topic of conversation during the December 2014 FOMC meeting. Having opened up the transcripts for that year to the public last month, we are once more treated to the background behind this theater of the absurd. The final few months of 2014 were when everything came together. For these central bankers, it [...]

More Than A Decade Too Late: FRBNY Now Wants To Know, Where Were The Dealers?

By |2019-09-23T18:28:27-04:00September 23rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’ve said it all along; focusing in on bank reserves would leave you dazed and confused. It’s just not how the system works. After all, as I pointed out again not long ago, “our” glorious central bank had the audacity to claim that there were “abundant” reserves during the worst financial panic in four generations. "Somehow" despite that, it was [...]

The Many Obvious Dots of Keynes, Friedman, And Fisher

By |2019-02-26T17:18:26-05:00February 26th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The obsession with inflation is grounded in historical fact. This is true both of our recent “conundrum” as well as broader circumstances surrounding slow burning structural changes. As to the former, last year the global economy was supposed to take off, concurrently signaled by accelerating inflation rates due to what are always claimed to be tight labor markets. The worldwide [...]

The Bond Market Does, In Fact, Use The Correct Start Date

By |2017-11-21T18:13:37-05:00November 21st, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

First Bernanke, now Yellen. As I wrote earlier today, there is a growing tendency to revise economic history at least as it applies to official actions. Ben Bernanke defends QE from the perspective of 2009 forward, as if 2008 was all just someone else’s problem irrelevant to the world that came after. In effectively resigning from the Fed Chair position [...]

The Economics Definition of Sanity: Keep Doing The Same Thing Over and Over Because It Has To Work One of These Times

By |2017-11-07T12:46:27-05:00November 7th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We live in an age of statistics. They are everywhere, including a whole lot of junk numbers (endless studies) that don’t pass minimum scrutiny. Somehow, statistics have become the gold standard for at least the mainstream media in framing our view of everything from new discoveries to further exploration into how things work. That’s fine for a discipline like quantum [...]

A Different Kind, But Corruption Nonetheless

By |2017-09-27T12:27:04-04:00September 27th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The problem with the Federal Reserve is that it is corrupt. I don’t mean that its staff is busy filling their days thinking up ways to cheat the American taxpayer, rather it is a philosophical sort of debasement. Many people think the Fed is evil and nefarious, others that its policymakers are plain stupid. Neither of those is true. Ben [...]

The Purge of QE

By |2017-03-29T17:26:41-04:00March 29th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As I wondered yesterday, what good would opening up the Federal Reserve do for us? What you would find is already out on the table. We would be treated to hidden insight that already exists in public, such as that delivered by FRBSF President (and CEO) John Williams just today (thanks to T. Tateo for pointing it out). He pronounced [...]

The Calculations of Tomorrow’s Ineptitude

By |2015-12-15T17:24:10-05:00December 15th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As the monetary world prepares for the monetary equivalent of D-Day, it bears reminiscing about the true lack of confidence that permeates away from the direct public front of the central bank. Yellen has declared that monetary policy will be “data dependent” but that isn’t truly the case. Any such data will be filtered into the Fed’s models, which are [...]

How We Got Here: The Fed Confuses Itself Part 3

By |2015-11-02T17:52:06-05:00November 2nd, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I was rather content to let the matter lie after devoting a couple of lengthy expositions to it, but the Fed has its own way of confirming every charge. I am writing again about the fact that the assumed monetary agency was quite curious about the dramatic changes in banking and money at one point in the not-so-distant past only [...]

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