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Inflation Hysteria #2 (WTI)

By |2020-12-09T17:20:13-05:00December 9th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sticking with our recent theme, a big part of what Inflation Hysteria #1 (2017-18) also had going for it was loosened restrictions for US oil producers. Seriously. Legacy of the 1970’s experience depending too much on OPEC, subject to embargoes, American oil companies had been prohibited for decades from exporting oil. Not that it would have mattered before 2014, the [...]

QE Didn’t JOLT (again)

By |2020-11-10T17:13:19-05:00November 10th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

COVID-19 is a 2020 story and not so much one for 2021. Pretty much everyone, however, will be seeking to make it that way. To begin this week a stark reminder of that promise: vaccine-phoria. While that unleashed a curiously narrow risk and reflation frenzy, the fact that it wasn’t more widespread speaks to this disparity.A vaccine doesn’t really change [...]

Inflation Conditions Absent: Someone Call Jay

By |2020-10-06T19:20:27-04:00October 6th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I missed it: did anyone ask Chairman Jay Powell how in the world he’s going to be able to create this “hot” inflation he already needs to balance out a decade without it (meaning: recovery and growth) in order to satisfy this newfangled average inflation target? And though he makes it sound like it’s a new thing, especially adding the [...]

Even More Suggesting Something Did Happen In July

By |2020-09-09T17:26:39-04:00September 9th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Confident consumers are risk takers. Not only do they spend freely, they freely borrow in order to spend. Jay Powell has done his absolute best (I know) to convince Americans they have nothing to fear insofar as any economic fallout from COVID might be concerned. The Federal Reserve working in combination with the federal government has got every conceivable angle [...]

A Second JOLTS

By |2020-08-10T18:27:37-04:00August 10th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What happens when we are stunned and dazed? We filter out the noise to focus on the bare basics by getting back to our instincts, acting reflexively based upon our deeply held beliefs and especially training. When faced with a crisis and there’s no time to really think, shorthand will have to suffice. That’s what was so odd about 1930, [...]

There Was Never Going To Be A ‘V’ Because The Bowl Was Always Empty

By |2020-06-11T19:33:47-04:00June 11th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

What was stupidest about the past few months was how it was these guys who everyone was depending upon to make it all go just perfectly moving forward. Worse, those geniuses being held up as competent economic stewards practically reran the 2008 playbook line by line. What that said, more than anything, was that they had come up with zero [...]

Less Shine In The Sentiment Formula

By |2020-01-21T17:47:21-05:00January 21st, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The IMF yesterday downgraded its forecasts for global growth as well as its real GDP estimates for all the big economy regions. The organization now thinks GDP growth might have amounted to 2.9% last year. Not only the worst year since 2009, that was down from April 2019 approximations of 3.6% and the original forecasts which always start out near [...]

Very Rough Shape, And That’s With The Payroll Data We Have Now

By |2020-01-11T14:08:31-05:00January 11th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has begun the process of updating its annual benchmarks. Actually, the process began last year and what’s happening now is that the government is releasing its findings to the public. Up first is the Household Survey, the less-watched, more volatile measure which comes at employment from the other direction. As the name implies, the [...]

Consistent Trade War Inconsistency Hides The Consistent Trend

By |2019-12-03T18:53:40-05:00December 3rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You can see the pattern, a weathervane of sorts in its own right. Not for how the economy is actually going, mind you, more along the lines of how it is being perceived from the high-level perspective. The green light for “trade wars” in the first place was what Janet Yellen and Jay Powell had said about the economy. Because [...]

From Friends to Nemeses: JO and Jay

By |2019-11-06T22:33:59-05:00November 6th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

It was one of the first major speeches of his tenure. Speaking to the Economic Club of Chicago in April 2018, newly crowned Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was full of optimism. At that time, however, optimism was being framed as some sort of bad thing. This was the height of inflation hysteria, where any sort of official upgrade to [...]

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