201610.03 1

There Really Is Nothing Left to the Money Illusion

In the summer of 2013, the mainstream media was already convinced that Japan’s QE amplification, the true shock and awe “money printing”, was not just working it was doing so convincingly. The yen was down sharply against the dollar, feeding what looked like a surging export sector. Even though QQE was barely a few months…


Always More

For decades the slander against Herbert Hoover went unchallenged. He was branded a “do nothing” in the 1932 campaign, a charge which looks sillier the more time passes. The proper slander of Hoover is that he was Roosevelt before FDR was, only in miniature. From this view we can appreciate the intentional change in perspective;…


Greenspan to Yellen; Incoherence The Common Theme But Vastly Different Receptions

It is human nature to extrapolate in straight lines, to take what is as what should forever be. In economic statistics, tail risks continue to live outside the tails because the math can never get past that limitation. No matter how sophisticated the “jump diffusion” tendencies, no one can predict inflections. This is not to…


The Housing Story Is Really Inventory

Existing home sales as reported by the National Association of Realtors fell 7.1% in February 2016 from the month before. It was a very large decline but followed a two-month surge beginning December 2015; which itself came after an unusually large decline in November. In other words, housing and home sales seems to be that…

201601.11 2

Reading Curves and Finding Only the Death of Money

When analyzing the full and true nature of the dissonance between the idea of continued recovery and the financial markets’ scenario for something much worse you realize that this is not a new occurrence. In curve after curve, negativity has been building for years. Financial curves are important because they tell us the health of…


The Age of Voodoo

The Jackson Hole gathering may end up providing at least some clarification, but not even close to the manner in which everyone seems intent on inferring. With Janet Yellen’s notable absence, there isn’t the same sort of celebrity about what would have been the media hanging upon every word; that is, after all, what the…


The Recovery Fallacy

In looking through the CBO’s litany of economic projections, past and present, I wrote yesterday that the major economic problem started to become clear by what was missing. The main orthodox models all view economic potential in much the same fashion, as if the economy exists completely upon a curve of inflation and employment, whereby…

201506.12 0

What Comes Next; Part 2, The Looming Transformation

Part 1 is here, the history of defining systemic operation since 1907. The quest over equality or the “right” to impose optimal outcomes is one that cannot go backward. The inevitable failures lead no duty to re-assess overall, but only the means by which the results are to be commanded. That was the essence of…


What Comes Next; Part 1, Useful History of the 20th Century

Value as a foundation seems almost too literal to be an economic or financial concept, but it is perhaps the bedrock association that makes the economic system. We are used to aspects like profits and money, even inflation, but those are all symptoms of the ever-changing world surrounding value. Karl Marx understood very well how…