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Weekly Market Pulse: Follow The Delphic Maxims

By |2022-12-05T07:55:28-05:00December 4th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Note: This will be my last full commentary for 2022. I will spend the month of December on research for next year, visiting with family, and taking some much-needed time off. I will still be watching markets, as will all the other members of the Alhambra team and if something happens which requires me to communicate, I'll certainly do that. [...]

You Will Never Bring It Back Up If You Have No Idea Why It Falls Down And Stays Down

By |2019-12-06T18:46:59-05:00December 6th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t actually Keynes who coined the term “pump priming”, though he became famous largely for advocating for it. Instead, it was Herbert Hoover, of all people, who began using it to describe (or try to) his Reconstruction Finance Corporation. Hardly the do-nothing Roosevelt accused Hoover of being, as President, FDR’s predecessor was the most aggressive in American history to [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Well Worried

By |2019-10-23T15:08:28-04:00March 26th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

Don't waste your time worrying about things that are well worried. Well worried. One of the best turns of phrase I've ever heard in this business that has more than its fair share of adages and idioms. It is also one of the first - and best - lessons I learned from my original mentor in this business. The things [...]

There Really Is Nothing Left to the Money Illusion

By |2016-10-03T19:12:06-04:00October 3rd, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the summer of 2013, the mainstream media was already convinced that Japan’s QE amplification, the true shock and awe “money printing”, was not just working it was doing so convincingly. The yen was down sharply against the dollar, feeding what looked like a surging export sector. Even though QQE was barely a few months old, it was talked about [...]

Always More

By |2016-06-21T17:33:19-04:00June 21st, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For decades the slander against Herbert Hoover went unchallenged. He was branded a “do nothing” in the 1932 campaign, a charge which looks sillier the more time passes. The proper slander of Hoover is that he was Roosevelt before FDR was, only in miniature. From this view we can appreciate the intentional change in perspective; Hoover’s interventions failed to stop [...]

Greenspan to Yellen; Incoherence The Common Theme But Vastly Different Receptions

By |2016-06-21T12:17:50-04:00June 21st, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is human nature to extrapolate in straight lines, to take what is as what should forever be. In economic statistics, tail risks continue to live outside the tails because the math can never get past that limitation. No matter how sophisticated the “jump diffusion” tendencies, no one can predict inflections. This is not to say there aren’t warnings, usually [...]

The Housing Story Is Really Inventory

By |2016-06-29T18:30:06-04:00March 21st, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Existing home sales as reported by the National Association of Realtors fell 7.1% in February 2016 from the month before. It was a very large decline but followed a two-month surge beginning December 2015; which itself came after an unusually large decline in November. In other words, housing and home sales seems to be that much more volatile of late. [...]

Seven Years of ‘Jobs Saved’ Is Just The Start

By |2016-02-24T11:01:34-05:00February 24th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The last time I had occasion to notice Jack Lew was last January when he was in Davos assuring the world there was nothing wrong with either its economy or markets. He even went so far as to reiterate the “official” Treasury position about the dollar. He didn’t say it explicitly, but his meaning, much to do with the timing, [...]

Reading Curves and Finding Only the Death of Money

By |2016-01-11T18:58:21-05:00January 11th, 2016|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When analyzing the full and true nature of the dissonance between the idea of continued recovery and the financial markets’ scenario for something much worse you realize that this is not a new occurrence. In curve after curve, negativity has been building for years. Financial curves are important because they tell us the health of the monetary economy, namely assumptions [...]

The Age of Voodoo

By |2015-08-31T12:15:30-04:00August 31st, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Jackson Hole gathering may end up providing at least some clarification, but not even close to the manner in which everyone seems intent on inferring. With Janet Yellen’s notable absence, there isn’t the same sort of celebrity about what would have been the media hanging upon every word; that is, after all, what the Federal Reserve has become, not [...]

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