fbpx

L-shaped recovery

Writing Rebound in Italian

By |2020-09-02T18:00:05-04:00September 2nd, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As the calendar turned to September, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued new guidelines expanding and extending existing moratoriums previously put in place to stop evictions during the pandemic. Families affected by COVID either through the disease or as a result of job loss due to the coronavirus have been protected from landowner actions including eviction [...]

This Thing Is Only Getting Started; Or, *All* The V’s Are Light On The Right

By |2020-06-10T17:05:52-04:00June 10th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve’s models really are the most optimistic of the bunch. With the policy meeting conducted today, no surprises as far as policies go, we now know what ferbus has to say about everything that’s happened this year. Skipping the usual March projections, what with the FOMC totally occupied at the time by a complete global monetary meltdown Jay [...]

Attention All “V” People

By |2020-06-09T16:59:27-04:00June 9th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Around the same time Lehman Brothers and AIG became headline news in the middle of September 2008, none of the mainstream econometric models thought it was possible for the US economy to suffer so severe a shock that it would induce monetary policymakers to unleash ZIRP. Worse, the models all predicted that it would be impossible for anything to force [...]

The *Optimists* Have Some Terrible News For the ‘V’

By |2020-05-27T19:18:33-04:00May 27th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

It has to be a combination of confirmation bias and rationalizations. Not even the official story finishes up with the fairy tale ending. The “V” people seem to be ignoring what the most optimistic group is actually saying. And these optimists absolutely want it to be that way.It bears repeating the “V” case; that once the non-economic shutdowns are lifted, [...]

What Would The Hole Be Without The ‘L’?

By |2020-05-27T17:23:45-04:00May 27th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s a pretty simple question, at least when asked by a member of the American citizenry not already compelled by one bias or another. Did the 2009 “stimulus” bill (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act; or ARRA) work? The answer depends upon who you ask, including breaking down along partisan lines. To Democrat Economists, it absolutely did. For their Republican counterparts, [...]

What Was Monday’s Negative Oil, And Why It Was Overshadowed On Tuesday

By |2020-04-22T11:59:46-04:00April 22nd, 2020|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A crucial component of many commodity futures markets is a concept called roll yield. It relates to the shape of the curve and therefore how the market is discounting the three fundamental factors of supply, demand, and financing. Contango versus backwardation, there’s a lot to consider and even more at stake.Back in late October 2018, the WTI curve flipped to [...]

A Crude Future View From The Crude Curve

By |2020-04-14T19:02:52-04:00April 14th, 2020|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Concerns about the economy have overtaken concerns about the virus. That’s the conclusion reached by a series of polls conducted at fivethirtyeight.com. According to their surveys, Americans remain very concerned about the pandemic to start with. Thirty-eight percent say that, up from about 18% back at the beginning of March.In terms of the economy, 57% are now “very concerned.” That’s [...]

A(nother) Recovery In Apology Only

By |2020-04-14T16:49:19-04:00April 14th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s nothing more than pedigree, having little to do with actual performance. Central bankers are given a level of respect and even admiration suited only to their job title. As such, they travel the world as honored guests to fulfill the insatiable demand for their takes on essential matters no matter how far off the mark.Only rarely is there occasion [...]

Fear The L

By |2018-10-26T18:38:37-04:00October 26th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s one thing if China registers a low ceiling or Brazil. That wasn’t going to be possible this time in the developed world. Europe and the US were finally going to lead. That’s what they said last year, anyway. Markets are freaking out about the growing evidence for so many growth ceilings. The other term for it is an “L” [...]

Go to Top