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labor demand

No Surprise, Hysteria Wasn’t a Sound Basis For Interpretation

By |2019-02-27T17:11:06-05:00February 27th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What gets them into trouble is how they just can’t help themselves. Go back one year, to early 2018. Last February it was all-but-assured (in mainstream coverage) that the US economy was going to take off. The bond market, meaning UST’s, was about to be massacred because the overheating boom would force a double shot down its throat. Not only [...]

US Labor Demand Soars, Or Sours

By |2019-02-12T12:19:49-05:00February 12th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

JOLTS is at it again. The most-watched piece, Job Openings, has been surging. Ostensibly an attempt to measure the demand for labor in the private economy, the BLS figures that US businesses are in the market for whole lot of new workers. Given rising worries throughout the uncertainty of 2018, JOLTS JO has been used as a steady counterpoint. This [...]

The Wage Test

By |2018-08-17T15:32:34-04:00August 17th, 2018|Markets|

In August 2014, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen described the wage dilemma in some detail. She was still relatively new to the job at that time, and there was pressure on her from among the so-called hawks to more aggressively normalize monetary policy. Ben Bernanke had taken the more cautious approach having experienced what both he and Yellen would afterward [...]

Proving The ‘L’ In Labor

By |2018-06-06T12:15:56-04:00June 6th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Back in 2011 and 2012, apple growers in the state of Washington got the government there to declare an emergency. They were expecting a record or near-record crop of fruit but they just couldn’t find enough workers to harvest it all. Faced with a potentially devastating labor shortage, Washington’s governor turned to convicts. I wrote about it in 2013 and [...]

There Aren’t Two Labor Markets

By |2018-04-13T17:35:50-04:00April 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Allusions to a labor shortage continue to be ubiquitous. Two weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal published yet another such story under the headline Iowa’s Employment Problem: Too Many Jobs, Not Enough People. Ostensibly about the experiences of companies trying to hire in the one state, the implication was clear enough. If Iowa, IOWA, has a labor shortage, how bad [...]

More Less Than Nothing, Labor Conditions

By |2017-05-16T17:30:54-04:00May 16th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Despite a lower calculated inflation rate for April 2017, Real Average Weekly Earnings were only just positive for the month year-over-year. As the CPI had moved higher on the base effects of oil prices, real earnings were forced negative in each of the three prior months. The reason is, as always, no acceleration in nominal wages or earnings. None. Given [...]

Getting JOLTS

By |2017-05-10T10:40:07-04:00May 10th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Consistent with the LMCI, the JOLTS data series suggests very little has changed. There are two crossover points between them, where the level of Hires and the Quits Rate (a calculation derived from the JOLTS estimates) are included as two of the 19 factors in the LMCI. Though the latter was revised somewhat higher over the past few months, it [...]

A Lot of Noise Where Noise Really Shouldn’t Be

By |2017-04-11T18:27:42-04:00April 11th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Since there isn’t any detectable acceleration in wages or earnings, the plateau across the JOLTS data dating back to various points in 2015 is therefore not likely to be related to the presumed end of labor market slack. Even if the unemployment rate were a valid and relevant interpretation of “full employment”, there would be no reason why businesses might [...]

Was There Ever A ‘Skills Mismatch’? Notable Differences In Job Openings Suggest No

By |2017-03-16T19:30:11-04:00March 16th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Perhaps the most encouraging data produced by the BLS has been within its JOLTS figures, those of Job Openings. It is one data series that policymakers watch closely and one which they purportedly value more than most. While the unemployment and participation rates can be caught up in structural labor issues (heroin and retirees), Job Openings are related to the [...]

Labor Stats Are A Big Problem

By |2017-01-10T19:19:50-05:00January 10th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The updated estimates from the BLS for its JOLTS data largely confirm observations from other labor markets figures. The rate of Job Openings in November 2016 was slightly more than October, but still not appreciably different than what it has been over the past two years. The JOLTS survey indicated Job Openings first reached 5.5 million for the first time [...]

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