fbpx

labor force

Enough With The Labor Shortage Already, It Doesn’t/Can’t Exist

By |2017-09-07T18:39:00-04:00September 7th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Can we finally put to rest all notions that the US economy is at full employment and doing well, and therefore wage inflation is right around the corner? I suspect not. This dance has been ongoing for years now, continuing through what was nearly a recession, so there is little reason to believe that economists are so data dependent. The [...]

2017 Is Two-Thirds Done And Still No Payroll Pickup

By |2017-09-01T13:27:11-04:00September 1st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The payroll report for August 2017 thoroughly disappointed. The monthly change for the headline Establishment Survey was just +156k. The BLS also revised lower the headline estimate in each of the previous two months, estimating for July a gain of only +189k. The 6-month average, which matters more given the noisiness of the statistic, is just +160k or about the [...]

The Foggy Exit

By |2017-04-19T13:11:12-04:00April 19th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The aging of the Baby Boomers is not something that caught economists completely by surprise. That generation has been the subject of (academic) study going back to the surge in birth rates right after World War II. In economic terms, the challenges presented by the prospective retirement years for this cohort has been anticipated to some degree all along, particularly [...]

It Was And Still Is The Wrong Horse To Bet

By |2017-04-07T12:22:29-04:00April 7th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The payroll report disappointed again, though it was deficient in ways other than are commonly described. The monthly change is never a solid indication, good or bad, as the BLS’ statistical processes can only get it down to a 90% confidence interval, and a wide one at that. It means that any particular month by itself specifies very little, except [...]

Payrolls Still Slowing Into A Third Year

By |2017-03-10T11:51:33-05:00March 10th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Today’s bland payroll report did little to suggest much of anything. All the various details were left pretty much where they were last month, and all the prior trends still standing. The headline Establishment Survey figure of 235k managed to bring the 6-month average up to 194k, almost exactly where it was in December but quite a bit less than [...]

Real Wages Really Inconsistent

By |2017-02-15T19:00:49-05:00February 15th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Real average weekly earnings for the private sector fell 0.6% year-over-year in January. It was the first contraction since December 2013 and the sharpest since October 2012. The reason for it is very simple; nominal wages remain stubbornly stagnant but now a rising CPI subtracts even more from them. Consumers receive no significant boost to their incomes, but are starting [...]

Solutions Require Good Data

By |2017-02-07T17:52:16-05:00February 7th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There were no surprises in the updated JOLTS estimates for December 2016, just more of the same sideways. The level of Job Openings was 5.501 million (SA), practically unchanged from November’s 5.505 million. The BLS estimates that Job Openings have been stuck at around that level since April 2015. In terms of Hires, that series, too, was practically unchanged in [...]

Labor Stats Are A Big Problem

By |2017-01-10T19:19:50-05:00January 10th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The updated estimates from the BLS for its JOLTS data largely confirm observations from other labor markets figures. The rate of Job Openings in November 2016 was slightly more than October, but still not appreciably different than what it has been over the past two years. The JOLTS survey indicated Job Openings first reached 5.5 million for the first time [...]

No Love From JOLTS

By |2016-11-09T19:19:26-05:00November 9th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The BLS reported that the rate of hiring in the US continues to be sluggish and sideways. Total hiring across the labor market was estimated to be 5.08 million (SA) in September, down from August and the second slowest rate this year. Since first surpassing 5 million back in September 2014, the overall pace of employer engagement has been largely [...]

Go to Top