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labor market

More Questions Than Clarity On Labor Inflation Pressure As FOMC Seeks Justification For Taper/Rate Hikes

By |2022-02-01T17:31:16-05:00February 1st, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The BLS released its labor turnover data, or JOLTS, earlier today. There have been two main issues with it, starting with Job Openings (JO) which is widely cited along with the unemployment rate to represent the widely reported labor shortage theory. More controversial has been Quits, lately dubbed in the media as the Great Resignation for a variety of presumed [...]

Taper Discretion Means Not Loving Payrolls Anymore

By |2022-01-07T20:39:51-05:00January 7th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When Alan Greenspan went back to Stanford University in September 1997, his reputation was by then well-established. Even as he had shocked the world only nine months earlier with “irrational exuberance”, the theme of his earlier speech hadn’t actually been about stocks; it was all about money.The “maestro” would revisit that subject repeatedly especially in the late nineties, and it [...]

Before Nodding Along w/FOMC’s Hawks On Inflation, First Grab Yourself A Beveridge

By |2022-01-05T17:38:23-05:00January 5th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Beveridge Curve was a useful guide for checking the intuitive relationship between the economic demand for labor and the actual use of it. Downward sloping, what it implies is that as more companies demand more labor the less unemployment there should be. No duh, right?Because of this fundamental relationship, we might also use the Beveridge Curve in order to [...]

How Many More Americans Might Have Quit Their Jobs Than The Huge Number Already Estimated, And What Might This Mean For FOMC Taper

By |2022-01-04T19:44:11-05:00January 4th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There were a few surprises included in the BLS JOLTS data just released today for the month of November (note: the government has changed its release schedule so that JOLTS, already one month further in arrears than the payroll report, CES & CPS, will now come out earlier so that its numbers are publicly available for the same monthly payrolls [...]

As The Fed Tapers: What If More Rapid (published) Wage Increases Are Actually Evidence of *Deflationary* Conditions?

By |2022-01-03T20:16:51-05:00January 3rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Since the Federal Reserve is not in the money business, their recent hawkish shift toward an increasingly anti-inflationary stance is a twisted and convoluted case of subjective interpretation. Inflation is money and if the Fed was a central bank the issue of consumer prices wouldn’t necessarily be simple, it would, however, be much simpler: is there or isn’t there too [...]

A Global JOLT(s) In July

By |2021-12-08T17:43:58-05:00December 8th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Bureau Labor Statistics reported today another huge month for Job Openings (JO). According to their methodology (which I still believe is flawed, but that’s not our focus this time), the level for October 2021 (JOLTS updates are for one month further back than payrolls) was a blistering 11.03 million. It wasn’t a record high, though, as that was set [...]

The Productive Use Of Awful Q3 Productivity Estimates Highlights Even More ‘Growth Scare’ Potential

By |2021-12-08T10:50:13-05:00December 7th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What was it that old Iowa cornfield movie said? If you build it, he will come. Well, this isn’t quite that, rather something more along the lines of: if you reopen it, some will come back to work. Not nearly as snappy, far less likely to sell anyone movie tickets, yet this other tagline might contribute much to our understanding [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Paging George Katona

By |2021-11-15T09:31:00-05:00November 14th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Consumer sentiment hit a decade low last month, falling 6 points from an already low level. The culprit? Inflation, which we learned last week hit a 3 decade high in October. And if the founder of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is right, the next thing we'll see is an economic slowdown. George Katona was a psychologist who [...]

What ‘Growth’ May Be ‘Scaring’ The Labor Force

By |2021-11-05T19:05:53-04:00November 5th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is one of the most important results to look for, a payroll cue which opens up the question to much bigger issues. A recession or any serious downturn registers with employers first when they feel the need to cut back on labor. As the biggest input cost and cash flow commitment, nothing more than plain common sense.Once past some [...]

The Wile E. Powell Inflation: Are We Really Just Going To Ignore The Cliff?

By |2021-11-03T13:27:15-04:00November 3rd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last year did not end on a sound note. The initial rebound after 2020’s recession was supposed to be a straight line, lifting upward for the other side of the infamous “V” shape. Such hopes had been dashed, though, and as the disappointing year wound toward its own end yet another big problem loomed. In December 2020, millions of Americans [...]

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