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Weekly Market Pulse: Are We There Yet?

By |2022-01-31T08:08:04-05:00January 30th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I'll just get this out of the way right at the beginning. The question in the title of this post refers to the end of the ongoing stock market correction and the answer is likely no. There are no sure things in this business so it isn't an unequivocal no, but based on history, the odds favor more weakness. I [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Fear Makes A Comeback

By |2022-01-24T08:25:55-05:00January 23rd, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Fear tends to manifest itself much more quickly than greed, so volatile markets tend to be on the downside. In up markets, volatility tends to gradually decline. - Philip Roth Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. - Warren Buffett The new year hasn't gotten off to a great start for growth stocks or [...]

Dollars (TIC) In May: Consistently Inconsistent

By |2017-07-26T15:49:03-04:00July 26th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The TIC data for May was inconsistent. It has been that way for several months, and importantly describes what I think is the operative “dollar” condition. Though the data is several months old already, we can tell by certain real-time prices and indications that the difference between 2016 and 2017 is very clear in some parts, and none in others. [...]

It’s Hard Being A Bear

By |2016-03-23T14:13:35-04:00March 23rd, 2016|Alhambra Research, Markets, Stocks|

Global stock markets, especially in the US, have made a furious comeback from the lousy start of the year. At its worst level the S&P 500 was down 11% year to date and 15% from its peak late last spring. At that nadir the market was trading at roughly the same level as November of 2013, over two years of [...]

Decoupling?

By |2013-07-07T21:50:33-04:00July 7th, 2013|Economy, Markets, Stocks|

Remember a few years back when the term decoupling was all the rage? Emerging markets and Europe were supposedly going to decouple from the US economy's troubles and continue growing while the US suffered through its real estate bubble collapse. Well that didn't work out so well with most every market in the world eventually succumbing to the undertow of [...]

Goldilocks Or The Big Bad Bear?

By |2013-02-20T00:09:21-05:00February 17th, 2013|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Once upon a time in a commentary long, long ago I said that we'd know the US economy was on the right track when we saw three conditions simultaneously: rising stocks, a rising dollar and a falling gold price. Those three conditions - sustained - would indicate that the market is anticipating better growth and lower inflation. In case you've [...]

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