201806.22
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EFF Watch, Or Is It IOER Watch?

How bereft of ideas might they have to be to fall back on IOER? It’s scandalous, really. But the Federal Reserve in terms of intellectual property belongs on the TV program Hoarders. They never throw anything away, so attached do they become to whatever ineffective idea implemented at any time. Practical experience is in their…

201806.21
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That Didn’t Take Long (UPDATE)

I don’t know if I should make this a regular feature or not, but IOER is the one monetary policy factor that maybe is easiest enough to understand and therefore the quickest route for the public to get to they really don’t know what they are doing. Federal funds aren’t some obscure way off policy…

201806.20
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That Didn’t Take Long

That didn’t take long. The Fed’s IOER scheme lasted all of three trading session. That it was broken yesterday of all recent days isn’t surprising, at least when you realize the full range of things going on yesterday. First, a review: The issue this week, perhaps, is again EFF only this time the effective rate…

201806.11
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2018 or 2008? IOER, EFF and more Absurd Denial

Last week, it was overseas central bankers who stole the show. Many of them particularly in EM locations have had a really rough go of late, and a few in particular wanted the world to pay attention to dollars. Not any dollars, of course, as that would be far too easy. Rather, offshore “dollar” markets…

201804.12 12

Completely Full of It

In June 2008, ICAP actually launched a US-based alternative to LIBOR. It ended up as nothing more than one very minor footnote lost in a sea of more pressing problems and events. Still, that they even tried is somewhat significant and relevant to today. Before the whole cheating scandal came out, there were questions surrounding…

201802.15
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Escalation(s)

This is the Year of the Dog, or it will be starting tomorrow across Asia. Tonight marks the opening of celebrations for China’s Spring Festival Golden Week. These weeklong breaks in Chinese contributions to the global system have over the past few years rarely been so uneventful. Their absence has been noted both good and…

201802.08
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Thinking Liquidation

It’s impossible to tell what drives the short run in anything, so anything we describe and attempt to ascribe moves to comes with a grain of salt. That said, there are clearly some things missing here. I’m not talking about big stuff like overrating the Fed’s predictive abilities and its resolve, ridiculous stock valuations, or…

201802.06
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Small Tremors

The current state of geological science cannot predict an earthquake. There is hope, however, that warnings might be realistically developed so that populations in danger of the “big one” can be given some sort of reasonable information about probabilities. In studying the past few devastating quakes, such as the 2011 9.0 that hit Japan twice…

201709.08
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Why So Much Inventory?

Liquidity and more so liquidity preferences are vastly misunderstood for a whole host of reasons. A lot of it has to do with the dominant strains of Economics battling each other (saltwater vs. freshwater) over which statistical model fails less frequently. In shifting to mathematics and statistics, something great has been lost. Economists don’t understand…

201703.20
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Again?

It is more than interesting that Herbert Hoover has become the modern ideal of the liquidationist. In these very trying times, one is either that or a Keynesian, Hoover’s supposed opposite, an interventionist who believes there is no good in any recession or deflation at any time. To “prove” the superior foundations of the latter,…