201709.22
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Z1 Update to Money, Credit, and Thus Economy

The Federal Reserve updated the Financial Accounts of the United States (Z1) yesterday, meaning there is quite a lot of new data for the second quarter of 2017. It also means more than just that update, as each quarterly addition is often accompanied by revisions to past estimates. There were some substantial downward revisions to…

201709.08
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The Real Euro Watch

Everyone is now a euro watcher. The European common currency’s exchange value against the dollar has been on the rise, to put it mildly. Despite decades of declaring floating currencies the optimal framework, it really is quite entertaining to watch the furor when these things actually float one way or the other. This recent trend…

201706.12
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Given Past Few Years, C&I Slowdown Isn’t At All Surprising

There isn’t much data available on the mechanics of lending or the other side of it borrowing. It’s a topic of interest nonetheless given the crucial role (sadly) of debt in determining the marginal economic direction (second derivative). A financialized economy is a drag without credit growth. One of the more encouraging signs on that…

201704.06
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Ultra-Loose Terminology, Not Policy

As world “leaders” gathered in Davos in January 2016, they did so among financial turmoil that was creating more economic havoc than at any time since the Great “Recession.” Having seen especially US QE as the equivalent of money printing, their focus was drawn elsewhere to at least attempt an explanation for the contradiction. They…

201608.24
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The Product of NIRP: Exposing Psuedo-Science

It wasn’t the introduction of statistics that led to the dire state of “science”, rather it was the jettison of common sense in favor of, and the total deference to, statistics. This was not a single event or a clean break, of course, as it happened slowly over decades. But in the 21st century what…

201512.03
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Europe Proves The Placebo

Language itself being imprecise, it is often difficult to assign terminology that exactly fits the circumstances or processes being described. So often convention thinks and writes and speaks of monetarisms as if they were drugs like speed or heroin; the efficacious inducement toward uninhibited recklessness. Thus, “markets” are the addicts that only perform in the…

201507.08
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Still The Same Greece, Still The Same Math

In April 2008, Nassim Taleb was becoming a household name criticizing the quant dominance in finance. Bear Stearns had just failed and the entire edifice of mathematical order was still breaking down, as the last bastions of credit default swap “supply”, the monoline insurers, were still rumored to be heading for insolvency (while the nightly…

201506.25
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Santa Claus in Sweden

Just a few weeks ago the Swedish central bank, Riksbank, was being lauded for its courage and action in finally embracing QE as the ECB had done. The deflation problem in Sweden had been, so it is asserted, seemingly intractable and thus forcing the monetary hand once more. Riksbank has never been shy about fine-tuning…