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Xi’s National Security ‘Stimulus’ Reaches The People’s Bank of China

By |2022-05-20T17:37:15-04:00May 20th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Xi Jinping’s true aim, in my view, isn’t to severely limit the spread of the coronavirus, seeking its ultimate eradication, rather to curtail dissent particularly any views contrary to his handling of China’s increasingly desperate economy. Mao’s Xi’s purpose is to completely eliminate all opposition. This intentional security policy has now been extended to the People’s Bank of China itself. [...]

China’s Loan Results Back The PBOC Going The Opposite Way From The Fed

By |2022-03-14T19:29:54-04:00March 14th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This week will almost certainly end up as a clash of competing interest rate policy views. Everyone knows about the Federal Reserve’s upcoming, the beginning of what is intended to be a determined inflation-fighting campaign for a US economy that American policymakers worry has been overheated. The FOMC will vote to raise the federal funds range (and IOER plus RRP) [...]

A Speculative Story: Treasuries in Belgium, Russians in Ukraine, and Derecognized NFC Loans Changing Across Europe (but mainly Belgium)

By |2022-02-27T15:35:30-05:00February 27th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Have European banks begun to lend in a way that will lead to actual inflation? For Europe’s central bankers, this is a huge question. For so many years despite almost constant QE, banks have consistently refused to do so. Even with supercharged asset purchases begun in 2020, there still hasn’t been any correlation between ECB activities and bank lending.This is [...]

China Has No Room Or Any Real Reason To Rescue 2022

By |2022-01-25T19:02:46-05:00January 25th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When growth stops being growth, or the same growth, what do you do? The Keynesian textbooks all say “stimulus”, but what happens if the stimulus doesn’t stimulate? Worse, when it doesn’t stimulate because it can’t due to other pre-existing and intractable impediments.This is Xi Jinping’s dilemma and it only begins with the textbook’s missing chapters on eurodollar money.So, let’s start [...]

Taper Rejection and ‘Inflation’, This Right Here Is Your 2022

By |2021-12-20T18:25:00-05:00December 20th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How does QE work? That’s actually a trick question given how all the evidence produced in examination of the various programs undertaken across the world under that label uniformly indicates that it doesn’t. On the contrary, the most studied and tested government efforts in history have yielded consistent results up and down the board.It's just that the public has never [...]

The Real Tantrum Should Be Over The Disturbing Lack of Celebration (higher yields)

By |2021-11-02T18:31:53-04:00November 2nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Bring on the tantrum. Forget this prevaricating, we should want and expect interest rates to get on with normalizing. It’s been a long time, verging to the insanity of a decade and a half already that keeps trending more downward through time. What’s the holdup? You can’t blame COVID at the tail end for a woeful string which actually dates [...]

Until This Changes, Forget Inflation: Banks Bought Epic Amounts of Safe, Liquid Assets in H1 ’21

By |2021-10-08T20:39:23-04:00October 8th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The first half of 2021 was inundated with government helicopters, more QE’s, and then CPI’s put up with guarantees the “inflation” was going to continue for a long time. Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan’s often hapless CEO, proudly declared US Treasuries beyond the touch of any 10-foot pole. With the economy on fire, he “reasoned”, who would ever want safe and [...]

Tapering Or Calibrating, The Lady’s Not Inflating

By |2021-10-05T20:10:48-04:00October 5th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We’ve got one central bank over here in America which appears as if its members can’t wait to “taper”, bringing up both the topic and using that particular word as much as possible. Jay Powell’s Federal Reserve obviously intends to buoy confidence by projecting as much when it does cut back on the pace of its (irrelevant) QE6. On the [...]

Behind The Inflation Curtain (Europe)

By |2021-07-26T18:18:58-04:00July 26th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the ECB’s leadership presented their first QE to the assembled media on March 5, 2015, there was a lot of the usual corporate-speak. It sure wasn’t fedspeak, the purposefully obfuscating wordsmithing of the kind made infamous by Alan Greenspan. No, on this occasion, to the contrary, Mario Draghi, the ECB’s President, wanted to be perfectly clear in what he [...]

Jay Powell’s Bad Cop Routine: Intentionally Pushing Banks Off the SLR ‘Cliff’

By |2021-03-19T17:10:16-04:00March 19th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve has allowed itself an image of a marshmallow when it comes to the banking system it is (one-third) charged with regulating. First and foremost, along with the two other (redundant) triplets, the OCC and FDIC, the US central bank is not a central bank at all; it is near exclusively a domestic bank regulator. And while “macroprudential” [...]

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