manufacturing

Synchronized Again?

By |2018-09-21T12:14:10+00:00September 21st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last year around this time, the tropics provided some unintentional basis for what would become hysteria. Hurricane Harvey by soaking a major metropolitan area with a biblical amount of rainfall delighted Keynesians everywhere. So much destruction, so much economic growth potential on the rebuild. Then Irma flirted with the Gulf Coast spine of Florida for [...]

Further Diverging Productions

By |2018-09-14T16:39:40+00:00September 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production in the United States increased by 4.9% year-over-year in August 2018. That’s the best for American industry in 92 months going all the way back to December 2010. Hurray for the boom. As with retail sales, August was in position for the best possible monthly comparison. Unlike retail sales, IP has another month [...]

Yes, Sweden Is A Domino

By |2018-09-12T12:17:39+00:00September 12th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Over the weekend, another European nation turned toward the populist direction. It was enough to get one’s attention when Italy did it, but Sweden is something else altogether. The country has been long held out as an exemplar of everything that is right with globalization. They have industry, youth, etc. How in the world could [...]

Japan’s Not Really A Domino, Though The Timing Is Right

By |2018-09-07T17:41:19+00:00September 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This year is just different. Increasingly so. Not just in one or two places, either, but in way too many places. In Japan, for instance, real Household Spending rose by the smallest amount in July, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Japan. In 2017, this would have been a worrisome sign. In 2018, it [...]

More Dominos

By |2018-09-05T12:54:45+00:00September 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You get the impression often that these guys have no idea what drives the dollar. They cling to all sorts of theories, of course, from interest rate differentials to perceptions of economic strength. That seemed to be the case in 2017 and its “weak dollar” environment. Globally synchronized growth would mean potency pretty much everywhere, [...]

Global PMI’s Hang In There And That’s The Bad News

By |2018-08-23T16:38:48+00:00August 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At this particular juncture eight months into 2018, the only thing that will help is abrupt and serious acceleration. On this side of May 29, it is way past time for it to get real. The global economy either synchronizes in a major, unambiguous breakout or markets retrench even more. That’s been the basis of [...]

Rebalancing Decoupled Booms

By |2018-08-01T12:07:19+00:00August 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The entire purpose of China’s presumed rebalancing act is supposedly that the country’s economy will no longer be strongly linked to industry. Manufacturing, for export in particular, is what made modern China into an economic powerhouse, transforming a once agrarian subsistence society (thanks to socialism). One need only look at overhead or satellite images of [...]

Sentimental Inflationary Reflation

By |2018-07-17T15:36:02+00:00July 17th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sentiment surveys such as the ISM’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index are not strictly about current levels of production. Even if they were, they still wouldn’t be as straightforward as is presented. Rather, the ISM index or any PMI for that matter is an amalgam of variables ostensibly displaying how economic agents feel these variables are [...]

The Dreaded Vote of Confidence

By |2018-07-03T11:50:35+00:00July 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chinese officials are getting nervous. Everyone knows that whenever your favorite sports team struggles and fans are calling for the head coach’s head, any owner or general manager who then issues the dreaded (from the coach’s perspective) vote of confidence is essentially sealing his fate. PBOC Governor Yi Gang issued a similar sort of statement [...]