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manufacturing

Clear Production Suppression, But Why?

By |2021-11-16T19:46:37-05:00November 16th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Christmas came early for retailers already experiencing a boom year. This, however, creates a bit of conundrum given that producers have suffered rather than flourished despite such great fortune at the top of the supply chain. In whichever location you look at, production has been at best questionable.Why?Theories abound. The mainstream is filled with those like what’s been reported as [...]

It’s The Other What’s Becoming Ironclad

By |2021-11-04T20:22:41-04:00November 4th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was said to be the absolutely perfect scenario (see: below). The vaccines put an end to the pandemic within sight, combined with intractable problems getting any iron out of the ground and then shipped somewhere useful, demand for the commodity was expected to be robust and better while at the same time supply would remain constricted. With American consumers [...]

Decoupling From ‘Inflation’ Maybe

By |2021-11-01T18:25:12-04:00November 1st, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is no “decoupling”, at least there hasn’t been yet. Why would this time end up any different? The history of the term has itself changed over time, but by doing so has offered further proof this is a fact of global economic life in the post-August 2007 eurodollar era. It always goes like this: globally synchronized reflation (not growth); [...]

Far Longer And Deeper Than Just The Past Few Months

By |2021-10-18T19:48:49-04:00October 18th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Hurricane Ida swept up the Gulf of Mexico and slammed into the Louisiana coastline on August 29. The storm would continue to wreak havoc even as it weakened the further inland it traversed. By September 1 and 2, the system was still causing damage and disruption into the Northeast of the United States.While absolutely tragic for those who suffered its [...]

Surprise: It Isn’t Consumers Keeping American Factories Busy

By |2021-10-04T20:19:01-04:00October 4th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US factories are humming along, constrained only by supply issues which might occasionally limit production. That’s the story, anyway. There’s too much business because of them, manufacturers taking in only more orders by the day leaving them struggling to catch up.But what kind of stuff is it that is being ordered from our nation’s factories?Without thinking too much about it, [...]

One For New Orders, Several More Against

By |2021-10-01T17:25:42-04:00October 1st, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

New orders, new orders, new orders. That’s the substance of the inventory cycle. A lot more of them, the upswing in it can remain intact keeping the global manufacturing economy humming along. Should they start to scale back and then, maybe at some point, decline, this unusual supply-constraint trend transitions toward a more historical inventory cycle on the downturn. As [...]

More About Less New Orders

By |2021-09-30T19:26:13-04:00September 30th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The inventory saga, planetary in its reach. As you’ve heard, American demand for goods supercharged by the federal government’s helicopter combined with a much more limited capacity to rebound in the logistics of the goods economy left a nightmare for supply chains. As we’ve been writing lately, a highly unusual maybe unprecedented inventory cycle resulted (creating “inflation”).The worse the shipping [...]

All Eyes On Inventory

By |2021-09-23T19:33:50-04:00September 23rd, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You’ve heard of the virtuous circle in the economy. Risk taking leads to spending/investment/hiring, which then leads to more spending/investment/hiring. Recovery, in other words. In the old days of the 20th century, quite a lot of the circle was rounded out by the inventory cycle. Both recession and recovery would depend upon how much additional product floated up and down [...]

From The Blackest of Mouths: China’s (deflationary) Slowdown Picks (way) Up

By |2021-08-31T17:29:21-04:00August 31st, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At great risk of upsetting China’s army of censors, I’m going to “slander” the Chinese economy anyway. Were I a comrade within that particular nation, I’d now get labeled a “black mouth” spreading misinformation in the form of actual up-to-date data published by the same Communist government fearing its spread. Rate of change in the economy goes down, rate of [...]

Behind, Inflation’s Best Days

By |2021-08-23T19:55:58-04:00August 23rd, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Slowdown, yes, but by how much? The inflation argument has been forced to change yet again after having been put together by expectations for a “red hot” economy to stay red hot for a prolonged period. That’s no longer in the data, as even the most robust of indications – such as sentiment – have clearly cooled off. What’s left, [...]

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