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Widespread Sentiment Declines, Particularly Manufacturing New Orders

By |2022-06-23T19:48:34-04:00June 23rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s an ominous though hardly surprising development. This has been shocking for those involved. Many if not most shipping companies had convinced themselves that once Shanghai and China’s vast harbor facilities were opened back up there’d be at least a mini-boom, a surge in activity for the world (America) to make up for lost time. Container rates were widely anticipated [...]

ADP Front-Runs BLS and President Phillips

By |2022-06-02T19:41:12-04:00June 2nd, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s gotten to the point that pretty much everyone is now aware of the risks. Public surveys, market behavior, on and on, hardly anyone outside politics thinks the economy is in a good place. Gasoline, sentiment, whatever, Euro$ #5 in total is much more than what’s shaping up inside the American boundary. Globally synchronized of which the US is proving [...]

President Phillips Emerges To Reassure On Growing Slowdown

By |2022-06-01T19:30:41-04:00June 1st, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Just the other day, President Biden took to the pages of the Wall Street Journal to reassure Americans the government is doing something about the greatest economic challenge they face. Biden says this is inflation when that’s neither the actual affliction nor our greatest threat. On the contrary, recession probabilities have sharply risen as the real economy slows down given [...]

Another Month Closer To Global Recession

By |2022-05-24T18:13:22-04:00May 24th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We always have to keep in mind that the major economic accounts perform poorly during inflections. Europe in early 2018, for example, was supposed to have been just booming only to have run right into the brick wall that was Euro$ #4. Statistics like Real GDP picked up the downshift, but didn’t quite nail the degree to which the European [...]

Globally Synchronized

By |2022-04-26T20:22:39-04:00April 26th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

ECB Governor Christine Lagarde surprised, maybe even shocked most people when a few days ago it was reported she’d told her fellow policymakers to keep their mouths shut. Don’t go running to the financial media. Justifying the censorship, Lagarde said it was important for the central bank’s key officials to present a unified front given some drastic challenges over the [...]

Worry Walls Don’t Explain Repeated Falls

By |2022-04-05T18:02:12-04:00April 5th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Someone once said that the stock market is always climbing a wall of worry. Maybe that had been true in some long-ago day, but whether or not it might nowadays is beside the point. The nugget of truth which makes the prosaism memorable is the wall rather than the climber. There’s always something going on somewhere to get worked up [...]

Two Major Economies, One Key Difference In Timing

By |2022-03-31T20:07:35-04:00March 31st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A tale of two economies? At first, it might seem that way. However, this isn’t the first time apparent divergences have arisen. On the contrary, “decoupling” is a recurrent theme even though, in the end, it never happens. Of the major data released today, one set from the United States, the other in China. The former seemingly justifying the Federal [...]

Not Born Yesterday

By |2022-03-17T20:35:45-04:00March 17th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When even Bloomberg can’t help but notice, not just notice but then write about it, that’s significant. Normally a staunch water carrier for the official Federal Reserve position, these curves getting bent so far out of what would be better shapes aren’t so easy to just dismiss and ignore any longer. Jay Powell says household and business finances are holding [...]

Americans Love Spending Online In Certain Januaries

By |2022-02-16T17:49:50-05:00February 16th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When it gets cold outside and the pandemic throws another variant spread into the mix, Americans have proved they will come together…in virtual fashion to go shopping for fashions and more on Amazon. For the second straight post-Christmas winter, retail sales recorded by nonstore retailers ended up being far, far better than expected. According to the Census Bureau’s latest report [...]

Is There More To It?

By |2022-01-31T18:25:41-05:00January 31st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chinese authorities responded to their faltering economy in 2018 by diverging from their Western counterparts. Their PBOC would lean into rate cuts (RRR) at the very same time America's Federal Reserve would accelerate more in the direction of rate hikes. The ECB, for Europe’s part, intended to follow the Fed’s path, reaching December 2018 and terminating its own QE with [...]

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