Well, that clears that up. In case you missed it, back on June 27 Mario Draghi triggered the latest declared BOND ROUT!!! with what was characterized as a very upbeat economic assessment for Europe. And if things are moving forward there, they just have to be everywhere else. It came off as “hawkish” in the sense that if real acceleration [...]
On June 27, ECB President Mario Draghi opened that central bank’s international conference in Sintra, Portugal. Most media never made it past the first two sentences of his prepared remarks. For them, the verdict was already delivered in those few lines. They declared that Draghi declared monetary policy was working and the world was on its way at long last. [...]
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolio this month. Growth and inflation expectations rose somewhat since last month's update. The change is minor though and within the range of what we've seen in recent [...]
We often have discussions in the office that consist primarily of asking questions. Sometimes they are questions we don't think people are asking enough, sometimes questions we are sick of hearing and most often questions which we can't answer. Not questions that only we can't answer but rather ones that no one can answer based on real facts. I find [...]
The IMF like so many others appears to have been caught up in “reflation.” Its models had in its April 2017 WEO outlook upgraded US growth prospects for the first time in a long time. In their final 2016 WEO, the institute projected US real GDP growth of 2.20% for calendar year 2017, and then just 2.10% for calendar year [...]
It certainly does feel like 2014 all over again, at least in terms of sentiment and the air of a carefree attitude. There are dramatic differences, of course, but with regard to emotion there truly doesn’t seem to be much daylight between now and three years ago. All that was left to cap the comparison was for Greece to take [...]
As world “leaders” gathered in Davos in January 2016, they did so among financial turmoil that was creating more economic havoc than at any time since the Great “Recession.” Having seen especially US QE as the equivalent of money printing, their focus was drawn elsewhere to at least attempt an explanation for the contradiction. They initially settled on the Fed’s [...]
Far be it for me to defend Mario Draghi, but earlier this month when it was revealed that Eurozone inflation burst above the 2% target level for the first time in four years the mainstream characterized his demeanor as being more than what it really was. That says something about the media as well as Draghi, where the former is [...]
Why did Mario Draghi appeal to NIRP in June 2014? After all, expectations at the time were for a strengthening recovery not just in Europe but all over the world. There were some concerns lingering over currency “irregularities” in 2013 but primarily related to EM’s and not the EU which had emerged from re-recession. The consensus at that time was [...]
It is more than interesting that Herbert Hoover has become the modern ideal of the liquidationist. In these very trying times, one is either that or a Keynesian, Hoover’s supposed opposite, an interventionist who believes there is no good in any recession or deflation at any time. To “prove” the superior foundations of the latter, the ideological associates of that [...]
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