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market efficiency

Rational Expectations or Bubbles

By |2015-03-10T11:40:30-04:00March 10th, 2015|Markets|

The FOMC has been talking, so we hear, about changing “forward guidance” to indicate a potential rate hike sooner rather than later. They had already changed the basis of “forward guidance” back in September which largely negated what forward guidance actually meant. The concept is only pliable in the manner in which monetary theory has to follow “rational expectations.” Whenever [...]

Bubbles As Market Efficiency

By |2014-09-29T15:30:44-04:00September 29th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

I want to believe markets are efficient and incorporate "all" the possible permutations as best as possible, but I don't think that is the case under current conditions. Whatever efficiency there has been, or whatever may have been exhibited in the past, was degraded by financial engineering, and not just interest rate targeting by the Fed and other central bank [...]

What An ‘Absence of Meaning’ Means

By |2014-07-16T14:55:33-04:00July 16th, 2014|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Henry Hazlitt once wrote that, “it is often sadly remarked that the bad economists present their errors to the public better than the good economists present their truths.” I have come to wonder how far that might have penetrated, disabling so many of the tools in which any “good” economists, or even investors, may use to act. Without the free [...]

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