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market valuations

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2019-10-23T15:11:44-04:00February 12th, 2017|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

There hasn't been a lot of change in our indicators since the last update and therefore, despite my discomfort with the altitude of this stock market, there are no changes to the Global Asset Allocation this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50.  Bond markets moved around some during the [...]

What’s Cheap?

By |2013-12-08T18:21:22-05:00December 8th, 2013|Currencies, Markets, Stocks|

US stocks, based on long term valuation techniques, are the most expensive in the world. Expected returns over the next decade, again based on long term valuation techniques, are somewhere south of 5% real and with inflation very low, nominal returns won't be much better. At Alhambra, we believe that, at best, the S&P 500 is uninteresting and at worst [...]

Comparing Historical Extremes

By |2013-10-07T15:56:00-04:00October 7th, 2013|Markets|

Market risk in whatever asset class is usually estimated by volatility, and conceptually thought out in that way. Higher volatility is typically associated with “riskier” markets, particularly stocks. Let’s assume that you have two market choices for investment. The first features a standard deviation (1-year period of weekly market returns) of 1.48% where the VIX is 12.83. The second market [...]

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