may 29

TIC For July 2018: June Was Even Bigger Than We Thought, Meaning May 29

By |2018-09-18T17:33:50+00:00September 18th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You never quite know what you’re going to get with each monthly update. High frequency data tends to be noisy anyway, more so in the more exotic series. Following a month where something really changes, however, you aren’t quite sure if it will turn out to be nothing more than a phantom. Does last month’s [...]

Whose Tightening Is It Anyway?

By |2018-08-21T16:15:14+00:00August 21st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I suppose it’s only fair. After all, they started it. Earlier in the year, Federal Reserve officials including Chairman Jay Powell suggested it was all Trump’s fault. The abrupt difficulties presented by the dollar were, they said, the result of tax cuts swelling the deficit and thereby threatening capital markets with a “deluge” of Treasury [...]

Spreading Spreads (and JPY)

By |2018-08-20T18:56:40+00:00August 20th, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What is it that’s different in August? If there was some relative calm in global markets in June and July it certainly disappeared this month. The dollar shot higher and global liquidity indications began sinking again. Yields have fallen on safety (liquidity) instruments more apparently divorced from any other mainstream factors. One place to look [...]

When Sentiment Shifts

By |2018-07-10T16:36:44+00:00July 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Like all sentiment surveys, Germany’s ZEW is susceptible to overzealousness on the part of the survey participants. The Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung is a think tank located in Manheim that has since 1991 carried out this broad questionnaire. Up to 350 analysts are included in the panel, each working at a bank, insurance carrier, or [...]