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Weekly Market Pulse: A Fatal Conceit

By |2023-01-23T10:00:11-05:00January 22nd, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Inflation* in the US is falling rapidly with the CPI rising just 0.9% in the second half of 2022 versus 5.4% in the first six months. Existing home sales are down 14.6% in the last 3 months and 34% over the last year. Housing starts are down 22% and permits are down 30% year-over-year. Orders for durable goods are down [...]

The Other Side of Sliding Commodities; Was There Ever ‘Too Many’ Goods?

By |2021-10-06T17:48:28-04:00October 6th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Spend even a modest amount of time on the subject, and the distinct impression you are left with is that American ports and railyards are dealing with a truly epic jam because the economy has been so good there’s just too many goods for anyone to reasonably handle. Juiced by the federal government’s helicopters, Americans spent, spent some more, and [...]

If Inflation, Why Not Christmas From Mexico?

By |2021-08-25T17:16:28-04:00August 25th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The incidences of what’s downright bizarre have curiously become more frequent. Sign of the times. Pick your realm or timetable, there’s so much going wrong while completely disconnected from the “official” description of, or explanation for, whatever. Along these lines, did the US VP just warn America’s children from Singapore that Santa Claus’ legendary trade will be delayed, perhaps canceled?Summer [...]

A Whole Lot of Synchronized

By |2021-07-12T17:26:32-04:00July 12th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Another day, another alarming piece of data delivered from China. Anyone looking for where the PBOC’s “surprise” RRR cut late last week is coming from, the Chinese car market provides yet another pretty stunning and consistent example. Together with other recent datapoints, as well as uniformly falling global bond yields, it’s more evidence for the growing very possibilities of a [...]

Lumbering Economy And The Curves Behind Transitory Inflation

By |2021-06-14T19:01:18-04:00June 14th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While capital “E” economics can never seem to get out of its own, infatuated with statistics and regressions instead, small “e” economics is proven time and again. Simple supply and demand curves aren’t a realistic simulation of potential conditions, yet they are far more helpful than DSGE models even if highly stylized representations. Take, for example, lumber prices. Anyone remotely [...]

Which Is The Global Outlier?

By |2021-05-07T19:28:06-04:00May 7th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Awash in “stimulus”, but none able to dent a semiconductor shortage which is purportedly the reason for production woes. In the US and many other places around the world, governments have gone nuclear, with America’s federal authorities dropping checks with abandon. This has created, according to some, everyone in the media, a red hot economy right on the verge of [...]

Standard Textbook Dollar, Or Eurodollar Standard?

By |2021-03-08T20:06:11-05:00March 8th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s standard textbook stuff. Convention has it that “capital flows” are determined by the portfolio effects of interest rate differentials. Quite simply, if yields aren’t very high for low risk US instruments (like UST’s) or their European counterparts, fixed income managers must go hunting for yields overseas in Emerging Markets who offer fatter returns by comparison. Thus, “capital” is said [...]

Reserves Are Definitely Abundant; Money’s Becoming Another Story

By |2021-03-02T19:38:58-05:00March 2nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to the Federal Reserve’s latest balance sheet update (to last Wednesday, Feb 24), its remainder balance of bank reserves declined a touch from the week before. That week, Feb 17, had seen aggregate reserves rise to a record high of $3.38 trillion. These reserves are utterly abundant, no arguing that, but what does this mean?The other part of this [...]

For The Dollar, Not How Much But How Long Therefore How Familiar

By |2021-02-23T20:12:34-05:00February 23rd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Brazil’s stock market was rocked yesterday by politics. The country’s “populist” President, Jair Bolsonaro, said he was going to name an army general who had served with Bolsomito (a nickname given to him by supporters) during that country’s prior military dictatorship as CEO of state-owned oil giant Petróleo Brasileiro SA. Gen. Joaquim Silva e Luna is being installed, allegedly, to [...]

Xi’s Not Alone: From Mexico With Distrust

By |2021-01-27T20:00:03-05:00January 27th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China isn’t the only country actively resisting the “stimulus” certainties which go for inarguable wisdom around most of the rest of the world. Xi Jinping has stated his case very plainly, only no one wants to listen to the dictator; or at least take him literally. People would rather believe there’s only the one way to respond to big economic [...]

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