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Mining

No Acceleration In Industry, Either

By |2017-02-15T18:20:30-05:00February 15th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production in the United States was flat in January 2017, following in December the first positive growth rate in over a year. The monthly estimates for IP are often subject to greater revisions than in other data series, so the figures for the latest month might change in the months ahead. Still, even with that in mind, there is [...]

The Non-Cyclical Cycle Repeats

By |2017-01-19T18:16:11-05:00January 19th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial production rose year-over-year in December 2016, the first plus sign in more than a year. For the month, IP was up 0.5% from the same month in 2015, following declines of 0.7% in each of the prior two months. In seasonally-adjusted, month-over-month terms, IP increased by 0.8% in December after being essentially flat for four months before. Under normal [...]

The Scale Of Optimism

By |2016-11-16T12:27:32-05:00November 16th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial production continued its slow, shallow contraction, unusual in any economic climate but perhaps more compelling here in describing the different direction markets are taking. Clearly, as discussed several times before, certain parts of certain markets are betting that different is going to be effective where the same old was clearly not. The actual economy, however, has yet to show [...]

Sufficient Time Accumulated For Judgment About The Industrial Economy

By |2016-09-15T17:07:30-04:00September 15th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial production in the United States fell by 1.1% year-over-year in August, a slightly larger decline than the -0.6% estimated for each of the two months prior. August’s negative was the twelfth consecutive, marking a full year in slow but unusually persistent contraction at such a slope. The seasonally-adjusted peak was reached in November 2014, meaning that for almost two [...]

US Industrial Production Without Autos & Oil

By |2016-08-16T13:25:13-04:00August 16th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial production declined for the eleventh consecutive month in July, down 0.5% from July 2015. Though the slope of the contraction continues to be unusually shallow, the fact that it has lasted for nearly a year now is significant particularly in the context of the “rising dollar” period. On a monthly basis, IP is up from its low in March, [...]

US IP Down For 10th Straight Month Indicating Growth Is Now The Outlier Scenario

By |2016-07-15T16:08:13-04:00July 15th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial production in the United States remains caught up in the latest downward shift of the 2012 slowdown. The Federal Reserve estimates that overall industrial production contracted for the 10th straight month, falling 0.7% in June 2016. The degree of decline is relatively small, but as with so many other accounts the lingering of the condition for an only increasing [...]

Kicking Off The Next Phase

By |2015-12-08T15:59:13-05:00December 8th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The fact that there is almost universal recognition of a “manufacturing recession” not just here but spreading across the world is a significant change. After resisting and ignoring as much as possible for more than a year, economic weakness is now no longer unthinkable. This is, however, no mere academic exercise as there are very real consequences as the former [...]

Oil Is Just Now Starting To Drag

By |2015-11-18T15:37:59-05:00November 18th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US industrial production contracted again in October, having declined now in seven out of 2015’s ten months. Year-over-year, US IP increased by the smallest amount since 2009, barely positive at just +0.34%. The last time IP was so slow was January 2010; on the way down into the Great Recession, it was equivalent to March 2008. Capacity utilization declined again [...]

IP Simplicity

By |2015-10-16T14:14:07-04:00October 16th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial production fell again in September, seasonally-adjusted month-over-month, for the eighth time out of nine months so far this year. Year-over-year IP was barely positive, at just +0.4%. The last time output growth was so stagnant (on the way down) was March 2008! It has become exceedingly difficult to assign this trend some temporary designation or as if it was [...]

When ‘Deflation’ Reveals ‘Inflation’

By |2015-02-12T15:05:39-05:00February 12th, 2015|Commodities, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

One of the curiosities of the commodity collapse since the end of last June has been how various financial derivatives have been thrown off. I’m not speaking of credit default swaps of small businesses that provide sand to fracking rigs or “products” like that, but something far more basic. The price of commodities should, you might think, provide a basis [...]

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