Earlier in the year, China was the primary topic of conversation as its economy teetered upon the precipice of the great unknown, growth less than the “minimum”, while corporate defaults suddenly became somewhat contagious. At the time, monetarists globally were unconcerned despite the outward projection of a high degree of disorder because they “knew” the PBOC was “in control”, going [...]
While there are revisions to be made, and further revisions of those revisions, last month’s payroll report identified, unfortunately, what many economists are using for the “finish line” in this “recovery.” It is estimated in May that the US economy finally, ploddingly, regained the number of jobs it lost in the Great Recession. It took an enormous six years, a [...]
The latest home construction figures confirm both the durability of the downward trend and the theory that policymakers are getting nervous to the point of addressing it through additional measures. First, though, we need to sort out the noisy pieces. The data in multi-family construction is extremely volatile, so paying attention only to the month-to-month changes is highly misleading. The [...]
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