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monetarism

Now We Know Why the ECB Panicked

By |2016-03-10T16:18:32-05:00March 10th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The only immediate silver lining may be in the end the most fruitful of long-term prospects. Central bankers have done us a profound favor by overplaying their hand time and again. The catalog of false statements and expectations is long and getting longer. The ECB then assured “us” that this was different and that the LTRO’s, massive as they were, [...]

Their Recovery

By |2016-03-02T15:30:16-05:00March 2nd, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As I often write, in Japan it is far more difficult to hide the failure of “stimulus.” There are varying degrees of visibility in that regard around the QE world, but they all share negative redistribution as the base alloy. That’s why Janet Yellen may be merely uncomfortable and Mario Draghi increasingly brooding, but Haruhiko Kuroda was just pushed to [...]

Never A Good Sign When Central Banks Feel the Need

By |2016-02-16T19:00:34-05:00February 16th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You can’t blame the PBOC for trying, as if they were even going to do it, Monday was the day. With the US closed and after the turmoil all over the “dollar” up to last Thursday, the Chinese central bank was left with practically no choice. With Hong Kong shaping up to the mess in the eurodollar, there wasn’t any [...]

The Nearing End of ‘Stimulus’

By |2016-02-16T13:08:51-05:00February 16th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As China, Japan is the definition of insanity. GDP fell 1.4% in Q4 2015, marking the fifth contraction out of the past nine quarters and yet the word “stimulus” remains attached to QQE, the Bank of Japan and Abenomics in general. At this point, how much more time and sample size is necessary before calling it a failure? In about [...]

China Trade Unsurprisingly Collapses Again

By |2016-02-16T11:31:14-05:00February 16th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last month when China’s exports “only” declined by 1.7% (revised) the entire orthodox world took it as a definitive signal for the long-awaited monetary stimulus effects. Whether it was the yuan’s “devaluation” or the six rate cuts and the often double shots of reserve requirement reductions that accompanied them, December trade figures were so very encouraging. Economists, in particular, were [...]

The Monetary Root

By |2016-02-05T19:28:59-05:00February 5th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How did the world get this way? I don’t mean the oncoming recession, if that is indeed, as it appears, the economy’s fate. How did the payroll statistics ever attain this kind of deference and even religious zeal? U.S. manufacturing is shrinking, corporate profits are declining and goods are piling up on warehouse shelves. Those trends have elevated concern that [...]

Stimulus: ECB’s QE Goes Missing

By |2016-01-22T16:22:58-05:00January 22nd, 2016|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

If markets have rebounded today after the sustained selloff on fresh “stimulus” hopes, then one would have to wonder immediately what the background fundamentals might be. Setting aside all notions of past “stimulus”, the call for more would seem to suggest, quite strongly, something far, far less than desirable. Yet, in the same breath economists and brokerage firms would have [...]

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