monetary policy

Prefiguring The Expected Expectations Fail

By |2018-09-10T18:24:12+00:00September 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The Boston Fed held its 62nd Annual Economic Conference over the weekend. Not quite as well-known as the KC Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, this Eastern branch’s meeting still attracts many big-name speakers. The “right” speakers, that is, meaning academic and mainstream bank Economists, supranational think tank thinkers, as well as current and former central bankers. [...]

‘Mispriced’ Bonds Are Everywhere

By |2018-08-30T16:27:35+00:00August 30th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US yield curve isn’t the only one on the precipice. There are any number of them that are getting attention for all the wrong reasons. At least those rationalizations provided by mainstream Economists and the central bankers they parrot. As noted yesterday, the UST 2s10s is now the most requested data out of FRED. [...]

Beware The Collateral Underneath The Top of GDP

By |2018-07-24T18:31:40+00:00July 24th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why so much wholesale emphasis on collateral? Easy. The monetary history of recent times hasn’t been very kind in that regard. On the one hand, the repo market has become so much more important than it was, as scared interbank participants fled unsecured eurodollar markets eleven years ago next month for the presumed shelter of [...]

Gold, Dollar, and Repo: Who Cares About Taper, or QE?

By |2018-07-17T18:49:40+00:00July 17th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s funny how these things work. He didn’t actually say the word “taper”, at least not when the frenzy first started. The very idea of the “taper tantrum” was the media’s work, the easy slogan that could be used as shorthand for the conventional explanation. The economy was improving, everyone was told and easily believed, [...]

How To Totally Misinterpret Deflationary Impulses

By |2018-07-16T18:36:51+00:00July 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sometimes it pays to wait. Better to be sure than premature. In January 2014, the journal Central Banking handed out its inaugural awards. Among the recipients was Paul Volcker who was bestowed a lifetime achievement prize. The initial Governor of the Year honorific, something like a central banker MVP, went to Mario Draghi of the [...]

Curves Have Been Here The Whole Time, Not That Anyone Cared

By |2018-07-10T19:07:04+00:00July 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Whether we notice them or not, there are a lot of things that do happen on a seasonal basis. Economists have tried to eliminate these patterns from our thoughts and analysis largely by smoothing them out with seasonal adjustments. But in money as markets there remain these bottlenecks. People have asked me from time to [...]