money dealing

Is Anyone Really Surprised DB’s Problems Had Nothing To Do With The DoJ Fine?

By |2018-05-31T17:03:13+00:00May 31st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You need only go back a little less than two years for an example. In later 2016, Deutsche Bank was a huge problem everyone was discussing if only because they couldn’t avoid it. Despite “reflation” then gripping much of the world, the German institution stood out for all the wrong reasons. Those were easily dismissed [...]

The (Official) World Still Has A Ways To Go

By |2018-04-24T17:29:52+00:00April 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Before Mario Draghi took over the ECB, he was head of the Bank of Italy. In between, Draghi was also Chairman of something called the Financial Stability Forum (FSF). This latter organization was created in 1999 “to promote international financial stability through enhanced information exchange and international cooperation in financial supervision and surveillance.” Draghi was [...]

Three Years Ago QE, Last Year It Was China, Now It’s Taxes

By |2017-12-04T18:57:43+00:00December 4th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported last week that the official manufacturing PMI for that country rose from 51.6 in October to 51.8 in November. Since “analysts” were expecting 51.4 (Reuters poll of Economists) it was taken as a positive sign. The same was largely true for the official non-manufacturing PMI, rising like its counterpart [...]

Just When You’ve Thought You’ve Seen It All

By |2017-12-04T17:18:07+00:00December 4th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

I could understand it if its track record was spotty, or partially mixed. But the level of denial runs deep and wide with the yield curve. There is a growing chorus of nonsense, really, which is attempting to spin the flattening as some kind of benign technical rotation that through illogical convolution equals the opposite [...]

A Derivatives Look At What Happened To ‘Reflation’

By |2017-10-18T16:14:18+00:00October 18th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reports that total gross notional derivatives contracts owned and outstanding by domestic banks rose for the second straight quarter. The OCC statistics are one quarter behind, meaning that though banks themselves are reporting Q3 numbers with earnings all figures shown here are from the official compilation [...]

Why It Will Continue, Again Continued

By |2017-07-24T19:35:00+00:00July 24th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Part of “reflation” was always going to be banks making more money in money. These days that is called FICC – Fixed Income, Currency, Commodities. There’s a bunch of activities included in that mix, but it’s mostly derivative trading books forming the backbone of math-as-money money. The better the revenue conditions in FICC, the more [...]

Inferring the Relative State of the ‘Dollar’ Shortage In Q1

By |2017-07-12T14:55:11+00:00July 12th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The OCC reports that total gross notional derivatives outstanding jumped by nearly 8% in Q1 2017 over Q4 2016. At $178 trillion, that is even more than the reported total for Q3 last year. The latest estimates largely confirm the idea that bank balance sheets were relatively more accommodative in 2017 than especially later 2016. [...]