201807.05
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Very Strong(ly Worried)

Inflation hysteria and the boom hysteria may both seem like they are one and the same thing. They are related, sure, and they represent similar objects. However, there are subtle differences. The mania over inflation, for example, has subsided while the one about the economy reaches its own feverish pitch. In early June, Newt Gingrich…

201807.05
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Talk About Binary; No In Between, Either Boom or Renewed Deflation

CNY has held up over the last few days after Chinese officials intervened. Central bank actions like these tend to work if only over the very shortest timeframes. The tentative calm there, however, hasn’t extended universally. Copper, for one, has fallen right out of its Reflation #3 range. Selling off solidly for almost a month…

201806.22
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EFF Watch, Or Is It IOER Watch?

How bereft of ideas might they have to be to fall back on IOER? It’s scandalous, really. But the Federal Reserve in terms of intellectual property belongs on the TV program Hoarders. They never throw anything away, so attached do they become to whatever ineffective idea implemented at any time. Practical experience is in their…

201806.21
6
4

That Didn’t Take Long (UPDATE)

I don’t know if I should make this a regular feature or not, but IOER is the one monetary policy factor that maybe is easiest enough to understand and therefore the quickest route for the public to get to they really don’t know what they are doing. Federal funds aren’t some obscure way off policy…

201806.20
4
8

That Didn’t Take Long

That didn’t take long. The Fed’s IOER scheme lasted all of three trading session. That it was broken yesterday of all recent days isn’t surprising, at least when you realize the full range of things going on yesterday. First, a review: The issue this week, perhaps, is again EFF only this time the effective rate…

201806.11
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2018 or 2008? IOER, EFF and more Absurd Denial

Last week, it was overseas central bankers who stole the show. Many of them particularly in EM locations have had a really rough go of late, and a few in particular wanted the world to pay attention to dollars. Not any dollars, of course, as that would be far too easy. Rather, offshore “dollar” markets…

201804.12 12

Completely Full of It

In June 2008, ICAP actually launched a US-based alternative to LIBOR. It ended up as nothing more than one very minor footnote lost in a sea of more pressing problems and events. Still, that they even tried is somewhat significant and relevant to today. Before the whole cheating scandal came out, there were questions surrounding…

201705.23
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Not Do We Need One, But Do We Need A Different One

On March 24, 2009, then US President Barack Obama gave a prime time televised press conference whose subject was quite obviously the economy and markets. The US and global economy was at that moment trying to work through the worst conditions since the 1930’s and nobody really had any idea what that would mean. As…

201705.22
3
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Stuck Between Dollar And De-Dollar

As we move past all the calendar effects pressed to the front of each year, some trends are starting to come into view. Not only are there trends but a few round numbers, even. The Chinese monetary system is one that is predicated on “dollars”; not all in dollar-denominated assets, but the type of foreign…

201704.26
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Still In So Many Ways 2014

What was it that touched off CNY’s devaluation in the first place? When it started, “unexpectedly” of course, it was described as intentional policy designed to thwart speculators betting too heavily on the currency’s continued rise. But the first major move in the chess game between the PBOC and “whatever” it is driving the currency…