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mortgage finance

COT Blue: A Decade of Weird

By |2018-03-16T16:17:47-04:00March 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On July 15, 2008, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sat in front of Congress for the second of his required Humphrey-Hawkins reports for that year. The original act meant for these to be more than bland economic obfuscation, where the original Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 demanded monetary targets. The Fed stopped being able to produce them [...]

Potential Connections

By |2016-02-03T16:59:30-05:00February 3rd, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

You simply cannot act as a money dealer when the money you are dealing is highly suspect. I am not writing about money in the true sense, such as any tangible form that falls under property laws of custody and bailment, but rather the wholesale “money” that is derived under the much looser and unconstrained terms of financial laws and [...]

Loss Of Housing Momentum Not Limited To Housing

By |2014-12-31T15:07:02-05:00December 31st, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index declined for the second month in a row in October, matching indications elsewhere that the slight rebound from the depths of last winter may be over. The Y/Y growth rate was the lowest since October 2012 as clearly price momentum has been lost. The upward movement in the index this year is by far [...]

Home Construction And The Legacy Channel

By |2014-12-17T11:41:26-05:00December 17th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The primary monetary channel for “stimulating demand” has traditionally fallen through real estate. Mortgage finance is the largest private source of financialism, reaching directly to people’s personal economy. The price appreciation of houses and the availability of mortgage credit are seen by orthodox economics as the basis for marginal “demand” changes in a theoretical philosophy that prizes nothing but activity [...]

Apps and the End of Subsidy

By |2014-09-10T14:52:55-04:00September 10th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate|

With the main flow of housing data a few weeks off, there is more discouraging news in the area of housing finance. Despite the retracement of interest rates, the 30-year conventional fixed in particular, since last year’s dramatic rout has done absolutely nothing toward re-establishing volumes consistent with the interim mini-bubble of 2011-12. With every week that passes under these [...]

Mortgage Supply Problems

By |2014-08-15T14:04:34-04:00August 15th, 2014|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate|

It seems as if there is a little more complexity taking place in mortgage finance, and therefore the housing “market”, as the simplified idea of rates running the show isn’t holding water. On the surface, the general theme is one that contours to the outline of conventional mortgage interest as it ran through last year’s selloff. It stands to reason [...]

No Mortgage For Homes

By |2014-02-11T17:28:36-05:00February 11th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate|

Following up on the previous post about the state of mortgage and finance post-tightening, we are beginning to see the first vestiges of a full reversal in housing. Construction activity has leveled off, and may even be declining depending on the individual measure. There has been hope that the collapse in mortgage demand would be “contained” in refis, but, as [...]

Trying A Little Too Hard

By |2014-01-17T17:06:52-05:00January 17th, 2014|Economy, Markets|

Joe Calhoun passed along the data for residential remodeling permits (according to the BuildFax Remodeling Index) for November 2013 (latest data available) and it was ugly. Total permits issued were 2,542,000 (seasonally-adjusted annual rate), 20% below October and 18% lower than November 2012. As usual, this "unexpected" decline, actually collapse, had a convenient though not-convincing excuse. "We saw a lower-than-expected [...]

QE 3 & Home Sales

By |2013-01-25T15:57:10-05:00January 25th, 2013|Markets|

December sales of new homes was disappointing in that the adjusted pace did not keep up with previous months. From May 2012 through October 2012, year-over-year increases in new sales levels stayed consistently above 20%. That drove expectations that the trend in residential real estate had finally turned. Given available data, that does seem to be the case. Economists and [...]

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