The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index declined for the second month in a row in October, matching indications elsewhere that the slight rebound from the depths of last winter may be over. The Y/Y growth rate was the lowest since October 2012 as clearly price momentum has been lost. The upward movement in the index this year is by far [...]
Adding to the disfavor in real estate and housing, the National Association of Realtor’s projection for existing home sales (resales) in November was just as ugly (if not more so) as home construction estimates. Resales were down a rather steep 6.5% from October (SAAR’s), and were up only 2.1% compared to November 2013. I say “only” because the calendar has [...]
The latest volatility in housing construction figures transferred to the single-family segment, as apartment construction has now entered full-scale languishing. In some respects that is contradictory to 2014’s view of a boom in rental properties, but I wonder if the lack of household formation is finally starting to catch up – rent or not. There is already an immense shadow [...]
The long-awaited “clarification” in GSE housing expansion is about due, and coincidentally it will be released at the same time other central agents are getting their work done. So as the global economy falls into at least a changed mood out of complacency and disinterest, suddenly the ECB has its covered bond “purchase” finalized (as if that is any different [...]
Since mortgage applications to purchase a home peaked back in June, it would make sense that home sales would follow a similar approach and pattern with enough lag. Not only are purchase applications down, they are back at the same low level that vexed the home market earlier this year – and this time without the “obvious” excuse of weather-forlorn [...]
With the main flow of housing data a few weeks off, there is more discouraging news in the area of housing finance. Despite the retracement of interest rates, the 30-year conventional fixed in particular, since last year’s dramatic rout has done absolutely nothing toward re-establishing volumes consistent with the interim mini-bubble of 2011-12. With every week that passes under these [...]
Now that home sales have bounced off the winter lows, we can analyze the real estate market outside of the excuses and distractions. There is no question that May’s sales rate was far better than January or February, but once again that is an amazingly low standard of comparison. In fact, May 2014’s SAAR is pretty much the same as [...]
In addition to continued retrenchment in housing construction (and likely sales as we will see next week) mortgage applications absolutely plunged again this week. According to the latest estimates from the Mortgage Bankers Association, their application index fell 9.2% from the prior week. That’s a pretty large drop reminiscent of the worst financial days last fall. Refis, as has been [...]
The latest home construction figures confirm both the durability of the downward trend and the theory that policymakers are getting nervous to the point of addressing it through additional measures. First, though, we need to sort out the noisy pieces. The data in multi-family construction is extremely volatile, so paying attention only to the month-to-month changes is highly misleading. The [...]
The latest noises out of both Fannie and Freddie are for increasing intrusion into housing, which is a sharp departure from where this was all heading (and where it should). The previous GSE administration (Ed DeMarco left in January, replaced by Mel Watts) had left the impression of winding down the troubled firms that have been in conservatorship since the [...]
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