Motor Vehicle Assemblies

There Isn’t Supposed To Be The Two Directions of IP

By |2018-06-15T16:24:55+00:00June 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US Industrial Production dipped in May 2018. It was the first monthly drop since January. Year-over-year, IP was up just 3.5% from May 2017, down from 3.6% in each of prior three months. The reason for the soft spot was that American industry is being pulled in different directions by the two most important sectors: [...]

Globally Synchronized Asynchronous Growth

By |2018-05-16T16:17:26+00:00May 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production in the United States rose 3.5% year-over-year in April 2018, down slightly from a revised 3.7% rise in March. Since accelerating to 3.4% growth back in November 2017, US industry has failed to experience much beyond that clear hurricane-related boost. IP for prior months, particularly February and March 2018, were revised significantly lower. [...]

Why The Last One Still Matters (IP Revisions)

By |2018-04-18T14:58:16+00:00April 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Beginning with its very first issue in May 1915, the Federal Reserve’s Bulletin was the place to find a growing body of statistics on US economic performance. Four years later, monthly data was being put together on the physical volumes of trade. From these, in 1922, the precursor to what we know today as Industrial [...]

US Industry Experiences The Full 2014 Again in February

By |2018-03-16T17:47:52+00:00March 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In February 2018, it was like old times for the US industrial sectors. Prior to the 2015-16 downturn, the otherwise moribund economy did produce two genuine booms. The first in the auto sector, the other in energy. Without them, who knows what the no-recovery recovery would have looked like. They were for the longest time [...]

Auto Sales Sink Again Without Harvey and Irma

By |2018-03-02T16:18:39+00:00March 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I can’t help but wonder what the CNBC author was going to write. It’s not a sentence I ever thought I would put down, but in this case the omission might have meant something. In reporting on auto sales yesterday, the article started out with the ultimate cliffhanger: Major automakers reported lower U.S. new vehicle [...]

US IP On The Other Side of Harvey and Irma

By |2018-02-15T17:39:20+00:00February 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production in the US was revised to a lower level for December 2017, and then was slightly lower still in the first estimates for January 2018. Year-over-year, IP was up 3.7%. However, more than two-thirds of the gain was registered in September, October, and November (and nearly all the rest in just the single [...]

Is Un-Humming A Word? It Might Need To Become One

By |2018-01-17T15:59:21+00:00January 17th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production in the US was up 3.6% year-over-year in December 2017. That’s the best for American industry since November 2014 when annual IP growth was 3.7%. That’s ultimately the problem, though, given all that has happened this year. In other words, despite a clear boost the past few months from storm effects, as well [...]

The Economy Likes Its IP Less Lumpy

By |2017-12-15T16:41:13+00:00December 15th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production rose 3.4% year-over-year in November 2017, the highest growth rate in exactly three years. The increase was boosted by the aftermath of Harvey and Irma, leaving more doubt than optimism for where US industry is in 2017. For one thing, of that 3.4% growth rate, more than two-thirds was attributable to just two months. [...]

Industrial Production Still Reflating

By |2017-11-16T17:16:33+00:00November 16th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production benefited from a hurricane rebound in October 2017, rising 2.9% above October 2016. That is the highest growth rate in nearly three years going back to January 2015. With IP lagging behind the rest of the manufacturing turnaround, this may be the best growth rate the sector will experience. Production overall was still [...]

Broader Slowing In IP

By |2017-10-17T13:06:38+00:00October 17th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production rose 1.6% year-over-year in September 2017. That’s up from 1.2% growth in August, both months perhaps affected to some degree by hurricanes. The lack of growth and momentum, however, clearly predated the storms. The seasonally-adjusted index for IP peaked in April 2017, and has been lower ever since. This pattern, the disappointment this [...]