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Motor Vehicle Assemblies

Spending Here, Production There, and What Autos Have To Do With It

By |2021-03-16T16:26:11-04:00March 16th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While the global inflation picture remains fixed at firmly normal (as in, disinflationary), US retail sales by contrast have been highly abnormal. You’d think given that, the consumer price part of the economic equation would, well, equate eventually price-wise. Consumers are spending, prices should be heading upward at a noticeable rate. To begin with, consumer spending – as pictured by [...]

Consumers, Producers, and the Unsettled End of 2020

By |2021-01-15T17:30:18-05:00January 15th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The months of November and December aren’t always easily comparable year to year when it comes to American shopping habits. For a retailer, these are the big ones. The Christmas shopping season and the amount of spending which takes place during it makes or breaks the typical year (though last year, there was that whole thing in March and April [...]

Extending the Summer Slowdown

By |2020-11-17T16:15:23-05:00November 17th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A big splurge in September, and then not much more in October. While it would be consistent for many to focus on the former, instead there is much about the latter which, for once, is feeding growing concerns. Retail sales, American consumer spending on goods, has been the one (outside of economically insignificant housing) bright spot since summer. If it [...]

OK, That’s More Like It, But Does Enough Of The Economy Believe It’s Enough?

By |2020-10-16T17:02:58-04:00October 16th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

OK, that’s more like it. Finally. American consumers absolutely splurged last month. According the Census Bureau, retail sales last month spiked by nearly 2% (seasonally-adjusted) from August, an unusually big monthly increase. This surge in spending during September 2020 sent the unadjusted total up by just more than 7% from September 2019. How good is that? Setting aside the statistics [...]

No Hole Puzzle, From Autos An August Stumble

By |2020-09-15T19:31:34-04:00September 15th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For a couple of years there, the oil patch was the heaviest contributor to the idea, at least, that the US economy had been booming. It never really boomed, of course, but on the industrial side investment and production throughout offshore and shale really were boosted and all predicated on the idea that Jay Powell’s (and the unemployment rates’) inflation [...]

It Doesn’t Just Disappear From the “V” Side

By |2020-08-14T17:17:31-04:00August 14th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Imagine you are locked in your home and can only go outside of it to purchase the bare necessities (this would’ve sounded ridiculous in every year before 2019). For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume that you normally spend $100 every month, half of that on the basics. Thus, for the month preceding this lockdown you’d have laid out the full hundred [...]

It’s Never What They Say, Pay Attention To How They Behave

By |2020-06-16T19:23:15-04:00June 16th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s a behavioral shift, one we’ve seen before. Misunderstood because of idiocy like QE, even those who’ve undergone the change fail to appreciate the deeper meaning behind it. Not just at the firm-level, more so systemically. GFC1 had left everyone, even the best of businesses, essentially stranded fighting for their lives. Lost revenue was secondary to daily survival.Liquidity.Among the grandest [...]

How Much “V” In Another (minus) 98?

By |2020-05-15T16:49:59-04:00May 15th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Technically, by showing one decimal place maybe this doesn’t exactly qualify. Then again, I was only half serious. When Mexico’s government reported earlier this week that auto production fell by almost 100% in April, I wrote it was suggestive of the great possibly lingering difficulties being forecast for the other side of this economic dislocation. Automakers, basically, aren’t buying the [...]

Hints of the Second Wave (Demand Destruction) Showing Up Right At The Start of the First

By |2020-04-15T15:30:46-04:00April 15th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What’s going on right now in the global economy is mostly the first of two pieces. Waves, if you like. The economic shutdown is an artificial dislocation, a non-economic factor that is interrupting regular activity and business for non-economic reasons. Because it is near-total in most places, this first piece is going to produce ridiculous numbers across all the economic [...]

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