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Retail Storms

By |2017-10-13T11:55:34-04:00October 13th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Retail sales were added in September 2017 due to the hurricanes in Texas and Florida (and the other states less directly impacted). On a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis, retail sales were up a sharp 1.7% from August. The vast majority of the gain, however, was in the shock jump in gasoline prices. Retail sales at gasoline stations rose nearly 6% month-over-month, [...]

Non-cycle Auto Paralysis

By |2017-08-02T12:45:28-04:00August 2nd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In December 2015, automakers were still riding high. Auto sales that year were to be another record, both in terms of units as well as dollars. Americans had spent about $437 billion on new vehicles in those twelve months, up from $407 billion the year before. Though there were notable disturbances throughout especially the second half of 2015, that December [...]

Adjusting Wholesale Sales And Inventory

By |2016-12-12T17:28:28-05:00December 12th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the estimates for factor orders were released earlier this month, there was an unusual pattern for the revision of September’s preliminary figures. Subsequent data suggested that factory orders were slightly less than had been originally calculated, yet despite that result for the unadjusted data the seasonally-adjusted estimate for factory orders in September was instead revised significantly higher. Overall, the [...]

Still No Growth In Wholesale Sales, Inventories May Start To Weigh

By |2016-11-09T17:42:47-05:00November 9th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales were flat in September, and flat overall for the quarter. They had declined sharply in July, rebounded in August, only to go nowhere for all the trouble. It is perfectly reminiscent of this whole economy, which fell in 2015 and then despite all projections otherwise never got back up. The best that can be said of it is [...]

The Important Parts Of The CPI; Rent & Attrition

By |2016-10-18T16:31:03-04:00October 18th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One last part of the CPI report that is worth mentioning is more directly economic than monetary. Rents have been rising for some time, though as I showed last month not wholly out of line with past periods. Before both the dot-com recession as well as Great “Recession” the rent component of the CPI surged upward. It peaked at just [...]

The Scale Of Wholesale Economic Loss

By |2016-09-09T16:52:58-04:00September 9th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The worst month for the wholesale level of the supply chain during the Great Recession was May 2009, just at the tail end of the heaviest part. The amount of sales as well as the calculated decline has moved around somewhat over the years as revisions have rewritten the amplitudes and the ultimate depth of that event, but May 2009 [...]

Slowing: Jobs Then Autos?

By |2016-09-02T12:01:59-04:00September 2nd, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If the labor market were slowing as the wider perspective of the payroll reports suggest, then it would make sense to find increasing difficulties even among the few bright spots in this otherwise anemic economy. Yesterday and earlier it was reported increasing signs of slowing in real estate, both construction and resales of homes (particularly dwindling inventory). In the past [...]

Wholesalers Cautious On Inventory For Good Reason

By |2016-08-09T15:58:42-04:00August 9th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales for June 2016 declined slightly, -0.6%, year-over-year. Since February, sales have flattened out in unadjusted terms. Seasonally-adjusted, wholesales sales rose nearly 2% from May 2016, and are up $17 billion from February. Of that increase, however, $11.5 billion was petroleum alone. Taking out the volatile swings in oil and oil prices, wholesale sales ex petroleum have been stagnant [...]

Are Automakers Suggesting It Is About To Get Real?

By |2016-08-04T19:15:00-04:00August 4th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Ford Motor issued a stark warning last week when reporting second quarter earnings. On its conference call, CFO Bob Shanks used the word “plateau” in relation to the possible trajectory of Ford sales later in the year. The company remained committed to its profit targets despite what it says are now increased risks that extend beyond Ford-specific conditions. Ford's results [...]

The Problem Is Not So Much Retail Weakness But Prolonged Retail Weakness

By |2016-07-15T17:47:43-04:00July 15th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Retail sales in June 2016 were up 3.14% from June 2015. That rate is slightly better than the average from the middle of last year, but not significantly so. The 6-month average continues to straddle the 3% range that traditionally marks recessionary circumstances, about 2% less than the average just before the “rising dollar” economy hit in late 2014. Under [...]

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