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A Derivatives Look At What Happened To ‘Reflation’

By |2017-10-18T16:14:18-04:00October 18th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reports that total gross notional derivatives contracts owned and outstanding by domestic banks rose for the second straight quarter. The OCC statistics are one quarter behind, meaning that though banks themselves are reporting Q3 numbers with earnings all figures shown here are from the official compilation for Q2. As such, the [...]

Inferring the Relative State of the ‘Dollar’ Shortage In Q1

By |2017-07-12T14:55:11-04:00July 12th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The OCC reports that total gross notional derivatives outstanding jumped by nearly 8% in Q1 2017 over Q4 2016. At $178 trillion, that is even more than the reported total for Q3 last year. The latest estimates largely confirm the idea that bank balance sheets were relatively more accommodative in 2017 than especially later 2016. Among the more buoyant categories [...]

Noose Or Ratchet

By |2017-05-03T18:12:58-04:00May 3rd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Closing the book on Q4 2016 balance sheet capacity is to review essentially forex volumes. The eurodollar system over the last ten years has turned far more in this direction in addition to it becoming more Asian/Japanese. In fact, the two really go hand in hand given the native situation of Japanese banks. As expected, data compiled by the Office [...]

Deeper Derivative Dive To Less ‘Dollar’

By |2016-12-29T13:13:06-05:00December 29th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency won’t release its collection of bank call reporting for Q3 2016 until January. There is a great deal about the aggregate US bank derivative book in that particular quarter that is of particular interest. Though we will have to wait for that update, there is still some value in reviewing parts of [...]

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