non-manufacturing

The Dreaded Vote of Confidence

By |2018-07-03T11:50:35+00:00July 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chinese officials are getting nervous. Everyone knows that whenever your favorite sports team struggles and fans are calling for the head coach’s head, any owner or general manager who then issues the dreaded (from the coach’s perspective) vote of confidence is essentially sealing his fate. PBOC Governor Yi Gang issued a similar sort of statement [...]

How Global And Synchronized Is A Boom Without China?

By |2018-02-01T16:26:07+00:00February 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to China’s official PMI’s, those looking for a boom to begin worldwide in 2018 after it failed to materialize in 2017 are still to be disappointed. If there is going to be globally synchronized growth, it will have to happen without China’s participation in it. Of course, things could change next month or the [...]

Three Years Ago QE, Last Year It Was China, Now It’s Taxes

By |2017-12-04T18:57:43+00:00December 4th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported last week that the official manufacturing PMI for that country rose from 51.6 in October to 51.8 in November. Since “analysts” were expecting 51.4 (Reuters poll of Economists) it was taken as a positive sign. The same was largely true for the official non-manufacturing PMI, rising like its counterpart [...]

Bonds And Soft Chinese Data

By |2017-10-31T12:40:37+00:00October 31st, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Back in June, China’s federal bond yield curve inverted. Ahead of mid-year bank checks, short-term govvies sold off as longer bonds continued to be bought. It was for some a rotation, for others a reflection of money rates threatening to spiral out of control. On June 19, for example, the 6-month federal security yielded 3.87% [...]

Pay No Attention To 50

By |2017-06-01T17:01:10+00:00June 1st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s PMI’s were uniformly disappointing with respect to what Moody’s was on about last week. Chinese authorities expended great effort and resources to get the economy moving forward again after several years of “dollar”-driven deceleration. There was a massive “stimulus” spending program where State-owned FAI expenditures of about 2% of GDP were elicited to make [...]

Back to 2013 US Version (Con’t)

By |2017-01-03T16:53:49+00:00January 3rd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Like China, manufacturers in the US report feeling better about manufacturing. Also like China, this is nothing new. The ISM Manufacturing PMI was estimated to have increased to 54.7 in December, up from 53.2 in November. That was the highest overall figure since December 2014. This is consistent with other sentiment surveys showing a noticeable [...]

Back to 2013 (Con’t)

By |2017-01-03T13:06:08+00:00January 3rd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s official manufacturing PMI fell just slightly for December 2016, after rising for November to the highest since mid-2014. The overall index pulled back to 51.4 from 51.7 the previous month. The subindex for New Orders remained steady at 53.2, matching the highest point since July 2014. These PMI estimates suggest that China’s experience with [...]

Global PMI’s ‘Languish’

By |2016-10-03T12:42:22+00:00October 3rd, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

From the orthodox binary view, PMI’s aren’t making any sense. Convention currently dictates that the economy must be growing, and where not moving unambiguously toward recession. Translating those expectations into these sentiment surveys means that under expectations for the former PMI’s should be not just above 50 but increasingly so, while the recessionary condition should [...]