201802.01
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How Global And Synchronized Is A Boom Without China?

According to China’s official PMI’s, those looking for a boom to begin worldwide in 2018 after it failed to materialize in 2017 are still to be disappointed. If there is going to be globally synchronized growth, it will have to happen without China’s participation in it. Of course, things could change next month or the…

201712.04
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Three Years Ago QE, Last Year It Was China, Now It’s Taxes

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported last week that the official manufacturing PMI for that country rose from 51.6 in October to 51.8 in November. Since “analysts” were expecting 51.4 (Reuters poll of Economists) it was taken as a positive sign. The same was largely true for the official non-manufacturing PMI, rising like its counterpart…

201710.31
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Bonds And Soft Chinese Data

Back in June, China’s federal bond yield curve inverted. Ahead of mid-year bank checks, short-term govvies sold off as longer bonds continued to be bought. It was for some a rotation, for others a reflection of money rates threatening to spiral out of control. On June 19, for example, the 6-month federal security yielded 3.87%…

201710.09
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Noisy PMI’s In China

In the US our economic data for a few months at least will be on shaky ground due to the lingering economic impacts of severe hurricanes. In China, the potential for irregularity is perhaps as great, though it has nothing to do with the weather. In a little over a week, Communist Party officials will…

201706.01
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Dollars And Sent(iment)s

Both US manufacturing PMI’s underwhelmed just as those from China did. The IHS Markit Index was lower than the flash reading and the lowest level since last September. For May 2017, it registered 52.7, down from 52.8 in April and a high of 55.0 in January. Just by description alone you can appreciate exactly what…

201706.01
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Pay No Attention To 50

China’s PMI’s were uniformly disappointing with respect to what Moody’s was on about last week. Chinese authorities expended great effort and resources to get the economy moving forward again after several years of “dollar”-driven deceleration. There was a massive “stimulus” spending program where State-owned FAI expenditures of about 2% of GDP were elicited to make…

201701.03
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Back to 2013 US Version (Con’t)

Like China, manufacturers in the US report feeling better about manufacturing. Also like China, this is nothing new. The ISM Manufacturing PMI was estimated to have increased to 54.7 in December, up from 53.2 in November. That was the highest overall figure since December 2014. This is consistent with other sentiment surveys showing a noticeable…

201701.03
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Back to 2013 (Con’t)

China’s official manufacturing PMI fell just slightly for December 2016, after rising for November to the highest since mid-2014. The overall index pulled back to 51.4 from 51.7 the previous month. The subindex for New Orders remained steady at 53.2, matching the highest point since July 2014. These PMI estimates suggest that China’s experience with…

201610.03
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Global PMI’s ‘Languish’

From the orthodox binary view, PMI’s aren’t making any sense. Convention currently dictates that the economy must be growing, and where not moving unambiguously toward recession. Translating those expectations into these sentiment surveys means that under expectations for the former PMI’s should be not just above 50 but increasingly so, while the recessionary condition should…

201608.01
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The Placebo Effect

On April 1, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that its official PMI for the manufacturing sector had burst back above 50 for the first time since July 2015 before all the “global turmoil.” The NBS didn’t actually use the word “burst”, of course, as they simply reported the figure and economists and the media…