nonstore retailers

Headwinds Of The Negative Feedback

By |2017-03-01T17:45:19-05:00March 1st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As oil prices remain as they are in relation to where they were one year ago, measured inflation rates have come back up, some faster than others. This does mimic the real world situation where consumers are paying more now for gasoline than they did last year. Even though they are paying less than three years ago for the same [...]

A Detailed Look At Target Is A Familiar Review of More Than Target

By |2017-02-28T19:31:31-05:00February 28th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Target announced both bad results as well as distressing guidance. The retail giant has been under pressure, and its quarterly update for its Q4 only confirmed the concerns. The company first reported the worst comparable store sales numbers (-1.5%) in three years. It was the third straight quarterly contraction for its comparables. For stores open at least a year, same [...]

Even When It’s Different It’s Really Not

By |2017-02-15T16:30:57-05:00February 15th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Retail sales grew by 4.92% year-over-year in January 2017, the third consecutive month of gains around 5%. It was the first time for three months near that level since 2014. Given the behavior of the economy in the second half of last year it is almost eerie the similarity in behavior to the 2013-14 period. The statistics for neither period [...]

Retail Sales Redistribution, Not Recovery

By |2017-01-13T12:18:30-05:00January 13th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The term “brick and mortar” has come to be a mostly 21st century antonym for online shopping. It was first used in the banking industry as far back as the early 1970’s. Banks led the adoption of innovations, foreseeing the possible gains in communication technology and not just in the eurodollar context of “floating” currency (shadow banking). Computerization even at [...]

‘Mixed’ Results For Retail Sales Aren’t Really Mixed

By |2016-10-14T12:04:09-04:00October 14th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Retail sales in September 2016 were mixed, though what I mean by that is importantly different than what it used to suggest. Before 2012, “mixed” results in accounts like retail sales indicated that there was some good, some concerning. After last year where retail sales were uniformly atrocious, “mixed” now means some components still that way, with some others just [...]

Retail Sales Slow Sharply (Again)

By |2016-08-12T11:27:42-04:00August 12th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the most part in 2016 retail sales had been better. “Better” is, of course, a relative term, and despite intentional colorization with respect to these types of economic accounts doesn’t automatically equate to “good.” Consumer spending data throughout 2015 was simply atrocious, not just on par with past recessions but among some of the worst months in the history [...]

The Problem Is Not So Much Retail Weakness But Prolonged Retail Weakness

By |2016-07-15T17:47:43-04:00July 15th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Retail sales in June 2016 were up 3.14% from June 2015. That rate is slightly better than the average from the middle of last year, but not significantly so. The 6-month average continues to straddle the 3% range that traditionally marks recessionary circumstances, about 2% less than the average just before the “rising dollar” economy hit in late 2014. Under [...]

August Was Concerning

By |2014-09-12T15:49:29-04:00September 12th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The retail sales release for August was actually quite alarming. The track of sales pretty much confirms the end of the spring “bounce” that showed up in Gallup’s figures, but the real concern is that the “bounce” itself was never more than a minor adjustment; an absence of further erosion as it were. That is nothing like what is being [...]

Online Joins the Rest of Retail Sales

By |2014-06-12T10:29:46-04:00June 12th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Anyone waiting on the warmer weather to bring out shoppers proving the existence of the mythical resilient consumer is going to be very disappointed with retail sales in May. The rebound from January and February isn’t much of anything other than a resumption of the prior trend – and that is a problem itself. In other words, if there was [...]

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