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not in labor force

Reopening 2

By |2021-04-05T17:36:05-04:00April 5th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last Friday’s March 2021 payroll report exceeded expectations in nearly every category. Analysts were hoping for something like the ADP’s private employment gains (+517k), somewhere in the ballpark of 550,000 to 600,000. Instead, the BLS thinks the whole economy had added between 803,700 and 1,028,300 (90% confidence). This translated into the “headline” of +916,000, of which +780,000 in the private [...]

What’s Wrong With Labor?

By |2014-05-02T13:58:14-04:00May 2nd, 2014|Economy, Markets|

The major headlines will continue to focus on the month-to-month changes in the Establishment Survey though the real analysis is the labor force. Given that the April to June period is often the most heavily influenced by birth-death imputation I would caution over-interpretation of that headline. That is further directed by a conflicting -73k in the Household Survey. This disparity, [...]

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