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not recession

Incomes Are What Matters, So Bad Month, Bad Year, Bad Decade

By |2017-09-29T11:52:04-04:00September 29th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sometimes economics can be complicated, such as why the labor market has slowed in such lingering fashion since early 2015. Sometimes economics can be easy, such as why there is so much less to the economy this year than thought. The easy part relates to the hard part. The labor market slowed and so did national income. Though so much [...]

About Those ‘Strong’ Consumers

By |2016-07-29T13:33:44-04:00July 29th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In advance of today’s GDP release, it was expected that the Q2 estimate would be around 2.6% (it was only 1.2%). The major reason for the anticipated rebound was “strong” consumers, a theme that has been a part of the dominant economic narrative since 2014 introduced the phantom “best jobs market in decades.” No matter what happens in the economy, [...]

Rough GDP

By |2016-07-29T12:10:58-04:00July 29th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The advance estimate for second quarter GDP came in lower than expected. At just 1.211%, the anticipated rebound from the dreadful winter failed to materialize in any significant way. Worse, benchmark revisions now suggest that GDP has been around 1% for three straight quarters; Q4 2015 was revised down from 1.377% to just 0.869%; Q1 2016 was revised back 0.831%. [...]

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