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oil and gas

Lack Of Industrial Momentum Is (For Now) Big Auto Problems

By |2017-08-17T16:30:21-04:00August 17th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production disappointed in the US last month, dragged down by auto production. Despite the return of an oil sector tailwind, IP was up just 2.2% year-over-year in July 2017 according to Federal Reserve statistics. It marks the fourth consecutive month stuck around 2% growth. The lack of further acceleration is unusual in the historical context, especially following an extended [...]

Sufficient Time Accumulated For Judgment About The Industrial Economy

By |2016-09-15T17:07:30-04:00September 15th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial production in the United States fell by 1.1% year-over-year in August, a slightly larger decline than the -0.6% estimated for each of the two months prior. August’s negative was the twelfth consecutive, marking a full year in slow but unusually persistent contraction at such a slope. The seasonally-adjusted peak was reached in November 2014, meaning that for almost two [...]

Kicking Off The Next Phase

By |2015-12-08T15:59:13-05:00December 8th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The fact that there is almost universal recognition of a “manufacturing recession” not just here but spreading across the world is a significant change. After resisting and ignoring as much as possible for more than a year, economic weakness is now no longer unthinkable. This is, however, no mere academic exercise as there are very real consequences as the former [...]

Oil Is Just Now Starting To Drag

By |2015-11-18T15:37:59-05:00November 18th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US industrial production contracted again in October, having declined now in seven out of 2015’s ten months. Year-over-year, US IP increased by the smallest amount since 2009, barely positive at just +0.34%. The last time IP was so slow was January 2010; on the way down into the Great Recession, it was equivalent to March 2008. Capacity utilization declined again [...]

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