oil prices

Further Diverging Productions

By |2018-09-14T16:39:40+00:00September 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production in the United States increased by 4.9% year-over-year in August 2018. That’s the best for American industry in 92 months going all the way back to December 2010. Hurray for the boom. As with retail sales, August was in position for the best possible monthly comparison. Unlike retail sales, IP has another month [...]

Crude Dollar Trade

By |2018-09-05T11:22:46+00:00September 5th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On November 7, 1973, President Richard Nixon addressed the nation via a broadcast television appearance. The topic wasn’t what you might think. Rather than trying to reassure Americans about the unfolding Watergate scandal, Nixon instead attempted to encourage the country about its energy situation. The month before, Egypt and Syria had launched a surprise attack [...]

What’s Hot Isn’t Retail Sales Growth

By |2018-08-15T15:58:45+00:00August 15th, 2018|Commodities, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Americans are spending more on filling up. A lot more. According the Census Bureau, retail sales at gasoline stations had increased by nearly 20% year-over-year (unadjusted) in both May and June 2018. In the latest figures for July, released today, gasoline station sales were up by more than 21%. The last time they surged this [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2018-07-19T18:59:24+00:00July 19th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics|

This will be a fairly quick update as I just posted a Mid-Year Review yesterday that covers a lot of the same ground.  There were, as you'll see below, some fairly positive reports since the last update but the markets are not responding to the better data. Markets seem to be more focused on the [...]

COT Black: Futures Curve Twisting

By |2018-07-12T17:34:08+00:00July 12th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is an interesting, ongoing academic debate about what shape the crude oil futures curve “should” take. Quite naturally, it seems backwardation is the market baseline. Most people, I think, presume otherwise because of their familiarity with commodities like gold. Backwardation in that market implies a physical shortage. Unlike that precious metal, crude oil is [...]

COT Black: Diverging Like ’13?

By |2018-05-23T18:08:11+00:00May 23rd, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

During the week of February 21, 2017, Money Managers (MGR) in the WTI futures market went all the way for higher oil prices. The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed a then-record 405k net to the long side. For whatever reason(s), oil prices didn’t necessarily follow at least not in the same nearly direct [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Growth Expectations Break Out?

By |2018-05-21T20:48:14+00:00May 21st, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

There are a lot of reasons why interest rates may have risen recently. The federal government is expected to post a larger deficit this year - and in future years - due to the tax cuts. Further exacerbating those concerns is the ongoing shrinkage of the Fed's balance sheet. Increased supply and potentially decreased demand [...]