Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Growth Expectations Break Out?

There are a lot of reasons why interest rates may have risen recently. The federal government is expected to post a larger deficit this year – and in future years – due to the tax cuts. Further exacerbating those concerns is the ongoing shrinkage of the Fed’s balance sheet. Increased supply and potentially decreased demand…


Still No Plausible Path To Hysteria

The yearlong wireless data plan nightmare is officially over. For the second month in a row, the CPI for Wireless Telephone Services, which includes any unlimited data at fixed prices, was more stable in its annual comparison. In April 2018, the index was nearly flat to April 2017; down by less than 1%. It was,…


Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Oil, Interest Rates & Economic Growth

The yield on the 10 year Treasury note briefly surpassed the supposedly important 3% barrier and then….nothing. So, maybe, contrary to all the commentary that placed such importance on that level, it was just another line on a chart and the bond bear market fear mongering told us a lot about the commentators and not…


Moving Past The Oily Path of Least Resistance?

On April 6, the Trump administration announced a new round of sanctions imposed upon certain Russian officials, persons, and businesses. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin announced their purported purpose in a letter: “The Russian government operates for the disproportionate benefit of oligarchs and government elites.” Russia’s currency, the ruble (RUB), fell sharply after the announcement as…


COT Black: Whose Seasonality?

Is there a seasonal pattern to oil prices? It is beginning to look that way, though statistical purests would object to a sample size of two. Over the past couple of years, the switch between “reflation” and anti-“reflation” has taken on a little too much familiarity in terms of time and timing. In the summer…


Durable and Capital Goods, Distortions Big And Small

New orders for durable goods, excluding transportation industries, rose 9.1% year-over-year (NSA) in January 2018. Shipments of the same were up 8.8%. These rates are in line with the acceleration that began in October 2017 coincident to the aftermath of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. In that way, they are somewhat misleading. The seasonally-adjusted data gives…

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Third Time’s A Charm?

I find the article laughable. I should point out I am a millennial male though, so I would think that. We invest in bitcoin because we are BROKE, and you cannot earn any significant amount by working. And honestly, this entire market proves what we all suspected. Working is for suckers, it will not get…


COT Black: All The Trades Are Crowded Here

Watching the crude oil market over the past few months has been a study in winding a rubber band, or a game of chicken. Each week it has been largely the same thing repeated: oil prices gently rise, backwardation in the futures curve keeps deepening, Money Managers in the futures market bet on higher oil,…


The Conspicuous Rush To Import

According to the Census Bureau, US companies have been importing foreign goods at a relentless pace. In estimates released last week, seasonally-adjusted US imports jumped to $204 billion in November 2017. That’s a record high finally surpassing the $200 billion mark for the first time, as well as the peaks for both 2014 and 2007….


Two Very Different Monetary Cases, And Their One Common Theme

When we look back at the period known as the Great Inflation there is a tendency, I believe, to truncate the episode only to the most well-known parts. What many people remember are things like gas lines, where oil problems and embargoes left Americans at several points in the seventies too often stuck for trying…