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oil production

Good Month For Industrial Production, But Serious Questions Remain

By |2017-05-16T12:18:39-04:00May 16th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production rose sharply in April 2017, up nearly 1% month-over-month (seasonally-adjusted). It was the largest single month increase since February 2014 during the depths of the Polar Vortex. Steady contributions from the oil sector as well as a rebound (of sorts) in Motor Vehicle Assemblies added to the gains. Year-over-year, IP was up just 2.2% in April despite the [...]

Staying Stuck

By |2017-05-15T16:49:08-04:00May 15th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The rebound in commodity prices is not difficult to understand, perhaps even sympathize with. With everything so depressed early last year, if it turned out to be no big deal in the end then there was a killing to be made. That’s what markets are supposed to do, entice those with liquidity to buy when there is blood in the [...]

Industrial Symmetry

By |2017-03-17T12:23:31-04:00March 17th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There has always been something like Newton’s third law observed in the business cycles of the US and other developed economies. In what is, or was, essentially symmetry, there had been until 2008 considerable correlation between the size, scope, and speed of any recovery and its antecedent downturn, or even slowdown. The relationship was so striking that it moved Milton [...]

No Acceleration In Industry, Either

By |2017-02-15T18:20:30-05:00February 15th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production in the United States was flat in January 2017, following in December the first positive growth rate in over a year. The monthly estimates for IP are often subject to greater revisions than in other data series, so the figures for the latest month might change in the months ahead. Still, even with that in mind, there is [...]

Economists Canada Problem (Con’t)

By |2016-12-27T18:39:33-05:00December 27th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Canada’s economy remains the distinct enigma of the developed world, where the binary business cycle breakdown is perhaps most conspicuous. When oil prices first crashed to end 2014 and start 2015, even economists expected Canada’s economy to suffer, so exposed as it was and remains to the energy sector. But after two rough quarters to begin last year, that was [...]

The Scale Of Optimism

By |2016-11-16T12:27:32-05:00November 16th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial production continued its slow, shallow contraction, unusual in any economic climate but perhaps more compelling here in describing the different direction markets are taking. Clearly, as discussed several times before, certain parts of certain markets are betting that different is going to be effective where the same old was clearly not. The actual economy, however, has yet to show [...]

Sufficient Time Accumulated For Judgment About The Industrial Economy

By |2016-09-15T17:07:30-04:00September 15th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial production in the United States fell by 1.1% year-over-year in August, a slightly larger decline than the -0.6% estimated for each of the two months prior. August’s negative was the twelfth consecutive, marking a full year in slow but unusually persistent contraction at such a slope. The seasonally-adjusted peak was reached in November 2014, meaning that for almost two [...]

The Monetary Wildfires In Canada

By |2016-08-31T10:42:15-04:00August 31st, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The massive wildfires in Alberta earlier this year had a tremendously negative effect upon not just the oil sector but all of Canada. Not surprisingly, Canadian GDP released today was abysmal. Falling 1.6% in Q2, that was the worst quarter since 2009. Fortunately for the Bank of Canada who had been “stimulating” again since last July when it cut the [...]

US Industrial Production Without Autos & Oil

By |2016-08-16T13:25:13-04:00August 16th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial production declined for the eleventh consecutive month in July, down 0.5% from July 2015. Though the slope of the contraction continues to be unusually shallow, the fact that it has lasted for nearly a year now is significant particularly in the context of the “rising dollar” period. On a monthly basis, IP is up from its low in March, [...]

Baseline Tendencies

By |2016-07-19T17:22:15-04:00July 19th, 2016|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With no clear direction from any of the Asian influences, it isn’t surprising to see more listlessness in everything from stocks to bonds. The Dow was up, the NASDAQ down, and the S&P 500 somewhere in between. The 10-year UST that had looked primed for receding back into the 1.60’s (for yield) bounced back to around 1.55% and steady at [...]

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