pce deflator

Weekly Market Pulse: Is The S&P 500 Still Uninvestable?

By |2023-12-03T20:16:58-05:00December 3rd, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate|

Note: This will be my last commentary this year. I plan to spend December thinking about next year and spending some much-needed time with family. Here's wishing you all a Happy Holiday season. Joe Calhoun Two years ago, I wrote a weekly commentary titled Who's The Sucker, in which I made the case that the S&P 500 was not a [...]

Peak Policy Error

By |2022-05-27T17:33:38-04:00May 27th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Another economic discussion lost to the eventual coronavirus pandemic mania was the 2019 globally synchronized downturn. Not just downturn, outright recession in key parts from around the world, maybe including the US. We’ll simply never know for sure because just when it was happening COVID struck and then governments overrode everything including unfolding history.What anyone can say for sure is [...]

Some ‘Core’ ‘Inflation’ Difference(s)

By |2022-04-29T19:33:52-04:00April 29th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The FOMC meets next week, with everyone everywhere expecting a 50 bps rate hike to be announced on Wednesday. Yesterday’s “unexpected” and “shocking” negative GDP is unlikely to deter anyone on the committee. Most have already dismissed it as nothing more than quirky, temporary factors, not unlike when they did the same to Q1 2014’s similarly negative result. At least [...]

Two Major Economies, One Key Difference In Timing

By |2022-03-31T20:07:35-04:00March 31st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A tale of two economies? At first, it might seem that way. However, this isn’t the first time apparent divergences have arisen. On the contrary, “decoupling” is a recurrent theme even though, in the end, it never happens. Of the major data released today, one set from the United States, the other in China. The former seemingly justifying the Federal [...]

Camp Sour or Soar: Inflation (global) and Spending

By |2021-11-29T17:30:15-05:00November 29th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s always a balance of probabilities tug-of-war. Markets (not stocks) are continuously trying to discern risk since everything is really converted to some kind of risk-adjusted basis. And if the perceived weight of those tilts downward thinking forward, then it may not matter much or at all what’s going on right now.What’s going on right now is, according to everyone, [...]

As Predictable Transitory ‘Inflation’, Predictably The Fed’s Taper Is (truly) Something Else

By |2021-10-29T17:29:44-04:00October 29th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In a very real sense, neither the current rate of PCE Deflator “inflation” nor any more expected to be added by the reported LABOR SHORTAGE!!! are what’s pushing the Federal Reserve toward its next taper error. The Fed doesn’t do money, so that’s not an option for them by which to set policy parameters. All that’s left, then, is “expectations.”Jay [...]

No Inflation Without Income; There’s No Income

By |2021-10-01T19:57:46-04:00October 1st, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Money, economy, income. Those are the three ingredients that make textbook inflation and keep it together. Money flowing naturally through the economy turns into organic income which if out of balance with the rest of the macro factors can create broad-based and sustained consumer price increases. If actually caused by the combination of those three, the result would be the [...]

Not Black Mouth To Bad Mouth The Global Causes of Transitory Inflation

By |2021-08-31T19:32:38-04:00August 31st, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Apparently, analysts were shocked when the Conference Board reported earlier today that its measure of consumer confidence, its own bread and butter, in the name, after all, dropped by a rather substantial eleven-plus points in August. And that was on top of a four-point downward revision to July. The new level of 113.8 compares to average expectations for ~124.0. Therefore, [...]

Inflation Review: How The ‘Best Jobs Market In Decades’ Couldn’t Deliver

By |2021-08-10T17:49:21-04:00August 10th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Money printing. Overheating. Going from an economy stuck in the mud to one rocketing ahead seemingly in the blink of an eye. Careless government officials steadfastly forecasting Goldilocks, surely whistling past the consumer price graveyard of stagflation misery.Long believed dead, that seventies Inflation Monster relit maybe by necessity but now on the loose lurking just beneath the surface, ready to [...]

Snapshot(s) of Inflation Relativity

By |2021-08-05T19:55:56-04:00August 5th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Economic relativity. One datapoint or economic circumstance may be said to be good, maybe great, in relation to another, but if the second isn’t really all that good maybe the first is just better than bad. Terms like “strong” and especially “recovery” should have more rigid definitions and be judged by more complete standards. If you are looking for a [...]

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