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Is It Other Than Madness?

By |2017-04-12T18:55:01-04:00April 12th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As earnings season begins for Q1 2017 reports, there isn’t much change in analysts’ estimates for S&P 500 companies for that quarter. The latest figures from S&P shows expected earnings (as reported) of $26.70 in Q1, as compared to $26.87 two weeks ago. That is down only $1 from October, which is actually pretty steady particularly when compared to Q4 [...]

The Inverse of Keynes

By |2017-03-24T11:33:18-04:00March 24th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With nearly all of the S&P 500 companies having reported their Q4 numbers, we can safely claim that it was a very bad earnings season. It may seem incredulous to categorize the quarter that way given that EPS growth (as reported) was +29%, but even that rate tells us something significant about how there is, actually, a relationship between economy [...]

Discounting, Or Never Learning?

By |2017-02-21T18:21:51-05:00February 21st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The hedge fund industry is not quite dead yet, meaning that it can still cause a great deal of disruption before it expires. It is here where things like rehypothecation and the bastardization of prime brokerage functions were perfected, such that we might use that term in this manner. Despite so much outward attention paid in this direction, very little [...]

The Market Is Not The Economy, But Earnings Are (Closer)

By |2017-02-21T15:51:01-05:00February 21st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

My colleague Joe Calhoun likes to remind me that markets and fundamentals only sound like they should be related, an observation that is a correct one on so many different levels. Stock prices, in general, and GDP growth may seem to warrant some kind of expected correlation, but it has proven quite tenuous at times especially in a 21st century [...]

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