The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today that pending home sales declined for the third straight month. As with so many other accounts, it’s not really the downside that is relevant but how instead there has been little to no growth for quite some time now. The NAR’s index value, which is how the organization reports the level of [...]
Another “unexpected” decline in home data has raised even bigger questions about the idea that the real estate market is settling into some steady and slow growth period. That has been the revised hope after the MBS disaster in late 2013. The middle of 2014 saw a renewed not-quite-enthusiasm for real estate which led to the belief that housing might [...]
There was a surge in new home sales reported last week, breaking the current flat trend that extended back well beyond last year’s MBS problems. The huge increase in sales, so out of character with other indications recently, suggests possible noisiness in the data. That is particularly true when existing home sales fell in August according to the NAR, and [...]
Mortgage rates have swung back to a 2-month high, a unfortunate concurrent timing to Janet Yellen’s recent assurance that the FOMC remains in full support of the mortgage market. Taper is not tightening to her, so the 53% decline in the monthly issuance of MBS and agency securities in February against May 2013 (before the taper word was released) must [...]
Following up on the previous post about the state of mortgage and finance post-tightening, we are beginning to see the first vestiges of a full reversal in housing. Construction activity has leveled off, and may even be declining depending on the individual measure. There has been hope that the collapse in mortgage demand would be “contained” in refis, but, as [...]
The housing construction data was delayed purportedly by the government shutdown in October. The expectation was that the September data would be released concurrent with the October data; which itself would be delayed by a few weeks. Given the state of housing uncertainty driven by financial parameters and recent trajectories, these are relatively important statistical updates. Rather than get the [...]
The National Association of Realtors estimated that pending homes sales declined 1.6% in August from July. In July, pending sales slipped 1.4% from June. That makes three consecutive months of slightly lower home sale contracts, mirroring the time frame, as expected, of interest rate behavior. The level of actual new home sales rebounded a bit in August, but the pace [...]
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