personal income

They Changed The Savings Rate, At Least

By |2018-07-31T12:18:15+00:00July 31st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I wrote back in August 2016 out of frustration. There were any number of topics to have become flustered over at the time, but on this particular occasion it was the personal savings rate. Because it is, like productivity, essentially a plug in between two statistics whenever those two particular series, income and spending, are [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Welcome To The Slowdown

By |2018-07-07T23:53:47+00:00July 6th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Investing, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics, Stocks|

Welcome to the slowdown. It isn't much - yet - and it may just be a passing phase, but there is little doubt that the US economy has slowed somewhat. The rise in short term interest rates has stalled and the long end of the curve has rallied. The result is a flatter yield curve [...]

There’s No Income So There Can’t Really Be Shortages

By |2018-07-02T11:43:26+00:00July 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The plural of anecdote is not data. At any given time in any given economy you can find counterexamples. During the Great Depression, for example, millions of Americans were doing very well for themselves. It wasn’t difficult to locate and talk to those who were prospering during what was a legitimate catastrophe. It’s never all [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: As Good As It Gets?

By |2018-06-05T16:50:25+00:00June 5th, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

In the last update I wondered if growth expectations - and growth - were breaking out to the upside. 10 year Treasury yields were well over the 3% threshold that seemed so ominous and TIPS yields were nearing 1%, a level not seen since early 2011. It looked like we might finally move to a [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Investing Is Not A Game of Perfect

By |2018-04-10T17:35:14+00:00April 10th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

The market volatility this year has been blamed on a lot of factors. The initial selloff was blamed on a hotter than expected wage number in the January employment report that supposedly sparked concerns about inflation - although a similar number this month wasn't mentioned as a cause of last Friday's selling. The unwinding of [...]

Scrooge’s Income ‘L’

By |2018-03-29T11:55:25+00:00March 29th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We keep revisiting the concept of “residual seasonality” quite purposefully, even though on its face it is an absurd one. It is in every way emblematic of the current state of Economics and the commentary derived from it. Residual seasonality is the kind of delusion that has become commonplace, a coping mechanism for an economy [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Ignore The Idiot

By |2017-08-14T20:47:55+00:00August 14th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Investing, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Of the economic releases of the past two weeks the one that got the most attention was the employment report. That report is seen by many market analysts as one of the most important and of course the Fed puts a lot of emphasis on it so the press spends an inordinate amount of time [...]

Incomes Always Deviate Negative

By |2017-03-31T15:39:33+00:00March 31st, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Personal Income growth in February 2017 was more mixed than it had been of recent months. Nominal Disposable Per Capita Income increased 3.73% year-over-year, while in real terms Per Capita Income was up 1.57%. For the former, that was among the better monthly results over the past year, while the latter was near the worst. [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2017-03-11T13:38:05+00:00March 11th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Monthly Macro Monitor, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Economic Reports Scorecard The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates again at their meeting next week. They obviously view the recent cyclical upturn as being durable and the inflation data as pointing to the need for higher rates. Our market based indicators agree somewhat but nominal and real interest rates are still [...]