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Which Is The Global Outlier?

By |2021-05-07T19:28:06-04:00May 7th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Awash in “stimulus”, but none able to dent a semiconductor shortage which is purportedly the reason for production woes. In the US and many other places around the world, governments have gone nuclear, with America’s federal authorities dropping checks with abandon. This has created, according to some, everyone in the media, a red hot economy right on the verge of [...]

Standard Textbook Dollar, Or Eurodollar Standard?

By |2021-03-08T20:06:11-05:00March 8th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s standard textbook stuff. Convention has it that “capital flows” are determined by the portfolio effects of interest rate differentials. Quite simply, if yields aren’t very high for low risk US instruments (like UST’s) or their European counterparts, fixed income managers must go hunting for yields overseas in Emerging Markets who offer fatter returns by comparison. Thus, “capital” is said [...]

Reserves Are Definitely Abundant; Money’s Becoming Another Story

By |2021-03-02T19:38:58-05:00March 2nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to the Federal Reserve’s latest balance sheet update (to last Wednesday, Feb 24), its remainder balance of bank reserves declined a touch from the week before. That week, Feb 17, had seen aggregate reserves rise to a record high of $3.38 trillion. These reserves are utterly abundant, no arguing that, but what does this mean?The other part of this [...]

For The Dollar, Not How Much But How Long Therefore How Familiar

By |2021-02-23T20:12:34-05:00February 23rd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Brazil’s stock market was rocked yesterday by politics. The country’s “populist” President, Jair Bolsonaro, said he was going to name an army general who had served with Bolsomito (a nickname given to him by supporters) during that country’s prior military dictatorship as CEO of state-owned oil giant Petróleo Brasileiro SA. Gen. Joaquim Silva e Luna is being installed, allegedly, to [...]

Xi’s Not Alone: From Mexico With Distrust

By |2021-01-27T20:00:03-05:00January 27th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China isn’t the only country actively resisting the “stimulus” certainties which go for inarguable wisdom around most of the rest of the world. Xi Jinping has stated his case very plainly, only no one wants to listen to the dictator; or at least take him literally. People would rather believe there’s only the one way to respond to big economic [...]

No Talk In The Dollar Shadows

By |2021-01-22T19:03:29-05:00January 22nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The company isn’t bankrupt, it just doesn’t have the right currency in its reach to repay debts coming due. YPF is Argentina’s (former) gold mine, in this case the black gold of energy exploitation. State-owned, the business has obviously close ties to the ruling powers-that-be and a privileged place to go along with them. Its formal name, Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales, [...]

Being Specific About Dollar Specifics

By |2021-01-11T19:21:19-05:00January 11th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last week, IHS Markit reported that sentiment in Mexico’s factory sector had slipped again during December 2020. The organization’s manufacturing PMI had declined for the second straight month, having peaked recently back in October. Even then, the index hadn’t yet come close to crossing the magic 50 dividing line. The best it had managed during this global rebound was a [...]

Mega-Bailout, Dollar Flood, So How Are They Out Of Dollars Yet Again?

By |2020-10-16T19:22:47-04:00October 16th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Who would’ve ever guessed? Jay Powell flooded the world with dollars, “overseas” swaps and all, but more and more you get the impression he doesn’t really know what he’s doing. The Fed Chairman, of course, is never alone when it comes to these things. He’s plenty of company.Recall, for a moment, how the IMF in June 2018 “rescued” Argentina. Big, [...]

Sobering Germans To The Mexican and Indian “V”

By |2020-10-13T17:38:49-04:00October 13th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The original “V” narrative was simple and straightforward. The economy was turned off by governments prioritizing modeled simulations of something like the Black Death, but it would be easy enough to turn it right back on especially with the aid of so much “stimulus” being added in every possible way. Monetary, fiscal, you name it.Piece of cake. Legitimizing the choice [...]

Brief Summary Of Where Things Stand Getting Closer to Q4

By |2020-09-24T20:25:50-04:00September 24th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Flash PMI’s for September 2020 around the world add more evidence to the possibility of a global slowdown during the economy’s all-important rebound quarter. Q2 was the big downturn, and so it always going to be Q3 where the bounce back would be sharpest. While that has definitely been the case, concerns are mounting for what might follow in Q4. [...]

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