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phillips curve

Sorry Chairman Powell, Even FRBNY Now Has To Forecast Serious and Seriously Rising Recession Risk

By |2022-06-19T02:04:26-04:00June 19th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At his last press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell made a bunch of unsubstantiated claims, none of which were called out or even questioned by the assembled reporters. These rituals are designed to project authority not conduct inquiry, and this one was perhaps the best representation of that intent.Powell’s job is to put the current predicament in the best [...]

ADP Front-Runs BLS and President Phillips

By |2022-06-02T19:41:12-04:00June 2nd, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s gotten to the point that pretty much everyone is now aware of the risks. Public surveys, market behavior, on and on, hardly anyone outside politics thinks the economy is in a good place. Gasoline, sentiment, whatever, Euro$ #5 in total is much more than what’s shaping up inside the American boundary. Globally synchronized of which the US is proving [...]

President Phillips Emerges To Reassure On Growing Slowdown

By |2022-06-01T19:30:41-04:00June 1st, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Just the other day, President Biden took to the pages of the Wall Street Journal to reassure Americans the government is doing something about the greatest economic challenge they face. Biden says this is inflation when that’s neither the actual affliction nor our greatest threat. On the contrary, recession probabilities have sharply risen as the real economy slows down given [...]

A(nother) Waste of Our Time

By |2022-04-01T17:57:42-04:00April 1st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s been a while, but the BLS finally got around to releasing a near-perfect payroll report. These had been incredibly common even during prior downturns and near recessions, which should only raise questions about them. Among any immediate concerns, how relevant can these data points be?In our current day, like the consumer price data, they’re already old news. That’s not [...]

Exposed Inflation Bubble

By |2020-09-03T19:31:30-04:00September 3rd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wait, wait, wait. Hold up. The Federal Reserve just concluded its near two-year long Grand Strategy Review. The purpose, in its most basic component, was to figure out why inflation hadn’t shown up in the manner everyone at the Federal Reserve spent years promising even though the unemployment tumbled to 50-year lows. The labor market was so tight, inflation was guaranteed. [...]

Fat Chance, Flat Phillips

By |2020-08-31T19:34:04-04:00August 31st, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

This one will also be simple but doesn't need to be lengthy. What is a flat Phillips Curve? It’s not just something Richard Clarida dreamed up recently. The idea has been talked about more and more as the inflation “puzzle” showed up disproving the LABOR SHORTAGE!!!! - meaning full employment and recovery narrative – over the past few years. Here’s [...]

The Big One, The Smoking Gun

By |2019-11-26T15:02:25-05:00November 26th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t just the unemployment rate which was one of the key reasons why Economists and central bankers (redundant) felt confident enough to inspire 2017’s inflation hysteria. There was actually another piece to it, a bigger piece potentially complimentary and corroborative bit of conjecture. I write “conjecture” because despite how all this is presented in the media there’s very little [...]

Much More Than Rate Cuts On (Dis)Inflation

By |2019-07-11T17:05:40-04:00July 11th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Things have changed, obviously. Chairman Powell and the rest of the FOMC, the majority anyway, have come around to rate cuts. Where they were hawkish in December, noncommittal as late as May, they’ve been spooked into them over the last month or so. As it stands, the first one is less than three weeks away. It’s not so much the [...]

The Chicago Way Isn’t Even Partway And It’s Still Not Good For Powell, US Economy

By |2019-05-20T16:37:51-04:00May 20th, 2019|Markets|

In March 1999, Economists James Stock of Harvard and Mark Watson of Princeton published a paper in the Journal of Monetary Economics seeking answers for an inflation problem. For many years, it had been accepted that the unemployment rate was the only measure of economic activity necessary to infer inflation. The implications were enormous, especially in the age of interest [...]

The Only People Who Don’t (Want To) See It

By |2018-09-17T19:42:15-04:00September 17th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If everything was going to plan, non-standard monetary policy at the zero lower bound (QE) would have raised inflation expectations increasing the level of aggregate demand as businesses and consumers ramped up their activities in anticipation of higher costs. The more this “overheating” goes on, the more forceful it becomes. Eventually, by virtue of the Phillips Curve, aggregate demand is [...]

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