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philly fed

Macro: Philly Fed Mfg Survey — Umm

By |2023-12-21T17:18:29-05:00December 21st, 2023|Economy|

Tis was a poor number. The headline dropped from -5.9 to -10.5. The more eye popping number was the Index for New Orders which dropped from 1.3 to -25.6. I hate to say it, the diffusion index for new orders has never gone below 21 without an accompanying recession; that is until 2023. This is the 4th reading in the [...]

Macro: Regional Surveys — early month NY and Phi

By |2023-11-17T15:30:17-05:00November 17th, 2023|Economy|

Current conditions and activity were reported a bit better than October although activity still remains in negative territory. New orders ticked down in Nov versus Oct. The general trend is still positive, but we don't want to see further weakness below the quick and dirty trend line.   Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not [...]

Macro: Regional Business Surveys

By |2023-05-31T16:34:32-04:00May 31st, 2023|Alhambra Research, Economy, Markets|

Regional Surveys from Philly, NY, Texas and Chicago are all at levels previously indicative of a recession. The lone false signal was the Texas General Business Activity Index in January 2016...the weakness was regionally isolated as the price of oil went from over $100/bbl in 2014 to around $30/bbl by early 2016. No region has absolutely fallen off a cliff, [...]

Which Way Is Domestic Manufacturing Really Leaning?

By |2019-12-26T17:43:45-05:00December 26th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The way the global economy shifted from globally synchronized growth to globally synchronized downturn was specific: dollar then trade then manufacturing and industry which then spread into other areas. If the economy is to avoid moving further down that same track, then something in that chain of events must actually change. Meaning just that: actual change in the way the [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Extending The Cycle

By |2019-10-23T15:09:52-04:00July 31st, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

This economic cycle is one of the longest on record for the US, eight years and counting since the end of the last recession. It has also been, as almost everyone knows, a fairly weak expansion, one that has managed to disappoint both bull and bear. Growth has oscillated around a 2% rate for most of the expansion, falling at [...]

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