While it seems obvious that the future should feature a lower dollar and gold continuing to outperform stocks, that is far from assured. That is the consensus view and while the crowd can be right for a long time, its clairvoyance is inversely proportional to its size. The more consensus the consensus becomes, the less likely it is to happen. [...]
As is my custom, I'll be taking a break from these weekly updates for the rest of the year. That doesn't mean I'll be loafing my way to year end though. I'll probably do some short posts as things come up before year end but my main focus will be on the 2026 outlook that we'll publish in a couple [...]
Are US markets, once again, in a bubble? Are AI stocks overvalued or are they discounting a new age of prosperity driven by big gains in productivity? What about gold? It's up over 50% this year, signaling...what exactly? Gold is a fear asset that usually shines when the economy is bad and stocks aren't doing so well. So, why is [...]
Was that it? Was that the top? A week ago, the market fell 2.7% as President Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1st. Since that Friday selloff, the market has stabilized and recovered a little over half that one day loss. The S&P 500 is now down just about 1.5% from its all-time high. Is [...]
The federal government shut down last week so we didn't get the monthly employment report last Friday and I think that may be the best news investors have gotten all year. I expect a lot of government generated economic reports to be missed during the shutdown, which I think could drag on a lot longer than previous versions. With the [...]
The price of gold set an all-time record last week, with futures trading over $3800 and spot prices just a bit less. The new price high was also an inflation-adjusted all-time high, breaking the previous record set in 1980 of about $3500 in today's dollars. The most important question facing investors today is this: why has gold more than doubled [...]
If, at the beginning of the year, anyone had predicted what actually happened in the first half of 2025, they would have been ridiculed and dismissed as delusional. If you were told that... Between January and April, the average US tariff rate will rise from 2.5% to 27% Among the Trump administration's first moves on trade will be to impose [...]
Oil jumped 7.5% last Friday in the wake of the Israeli attack on Iran but the reaction in most other markets was surprisingly muted. The dollar, which normally catches a bid in these situations, was up just 0.27% and US Treasuries actually sold off on the news. Gold was the preferred safe haven this time, up 1.4% on the week. [...]
In about five weeks, the pause on President Trump's "liberation day" tariffs will expire. So far, the US has come to an agreement, of sorts, with exactly one country - the UK. That outline of an agreement so far doesn't mean anything because the full terms haven't been agreed to nor implemented. In other words, we don't yet have a [...]
It appears we have started the third correction in stocks since the bottom in October of last year. The first one was in December and saw the S&P 500 fall about 8% from peak to trough. The second one was from February into mid-March and totaled about 9%. I don't know how far this one might carry but a pullback [...]
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