201804.13
7
3

Global Asset Allocation Update: The Certainty of Uncertainty

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. Stocks continued their erratic ways since the last update with another test of the February lows that are holding – for now. While we believe growth expectations are moderating…

201701.10
1
0

Global Asset Allocation Update

Market based expectations for growth and inflation have moderated slightly since the last update. Since mid-December, interest rates – nominal and real – have fallen back, the yield curve has flattened, the dollar index has pulled back from its highs and gold has moved off its lows. In short, the Trump trade is being partially reversed…

201208.24
2
0

The Next Phase For Gold

Precious metals prices are currently fixed on strikes at mines in S Africa. Potential unrest is pushing PM prices higher. In the current weakening global trade environment, is it possible that an increase in worker unrest upsets the supply of metals at exactly when banks are shifting toward gold? Major disruption to platinum is expected…

201005.09
1
0

Weekly Chart Review

The problems last week started in the currency markets. A surge in the Yen is what set the Dow collapse in motion Thursday: Rather than look at all the markets that suffered fatal technical damage last week which includes most every market in Europe, let’s look at markets that are still above their 200 day…

200911.15
1
0

Bubbles

Fredric Mishkin, former Fed governor, last week opined that all bubbles are not created equal, that only the credit variety are really damaging to the economy. The other kind of bubble – the internet, irrational exuberance variety – isn’t so bad and doesn’t do the sort of damage that the credit driven, real estate variety does. I suppose…

200909.13
1
0

Barack Hoover Smoot Hawley Obama

From the NY Times, June 28: “At a time when the economy worldwide is still deep in recession and we’ve seen a significant drop in global trade,” Mr. Obama said, “I think we have to be very careful about sending any protectionist signals out there.” WASHINGTON, Sept 9 (Reuters) – The U.S. Commerce Department said…