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White-Hot Cycles of Silence

By |2021-12-27T18:46:15-05:00December 27th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We’re only ever given the two options: the economy is either in recession, or it isn’t. And if “not”, then we’re led to believe it must be in recovery if not outright booming already. These are what Economics says is the business cycle. A full absence of unit roots. No gray areas to explore the sudden arrival of only deeply [...]

Forty-Seven Explains Much

By |2021-02-12T18:57:36-05:00February 12th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For Jay Powell’s inflation case, the University of Michigan provided it with some badly needed support. Telling the world he “flooded” it with “digital money printing” three-quarters of a year ago, actual inflation rates have instead fallen down to or near historic lows. No biggie, those in Powell’s corner say, just a matter of time before this changes (commodities!), possibly [...]

The Summer Slowdown Collides With The Summers Acceleration Theory

By |2020-12-29T17:19:37-05:00December 29th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You’d think Larry Summers would know better. Not that he stepped in it, again, but rather why he did this particular time. Making a big deal out of inflationary aggregate demand when he’s been practically the lone mainstream Economist to look at the post-2008 economy in an honest and serious fashion to then somehow failing to incorporate that view into [...]

Your K Is Little More Than The Identifying Details Of This 2nd L

By |2020-12-02T17:52:46-05:00December 2nd, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

ADP reports today that, for the fifth consecutive month, the labor market recovery everyone had hoped for has instead been transformed into something else entirely. According to the firm, private payrolls expanded by just 307,000 in November 2020 from October. That’s the slowest pace since July, and, most important of all, leaves the private US economy near 10 million short [...]

The Clowns Over The Corrupt

By |2018-07-20T12:28:13-04:00July 20th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Bank of Japan is run by clowns. All of their major moves have blown up in their faces. The NIRP fiasco of January 2016 was one of the most stupendous moments of technical ineptitude ever displayed by a central bank; and that’s saying something, being able to choose from such a long and prominent list of monetary policy errors. [...]

If Powell Is Angry And Disgusted, That’s A Small Positive

By |2018-03-27T20:40:17-04:00March 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to one research company, new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was disgusted and angry at his press conference yesterday. The firm, Prattle, employed facial recognition software to track Powell’s expressions throughout his inaugural press conference. By their count, he was disgusted 36 times, angry 41 times, and expressed contempt another five. Powell conveyed joy on a mere four instances. [...]

Industrial Symmetry

By |2017-03-17T12:23:31-04:00March 17th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There has always been something like Newton’s third law observed in the business cycles of the US and other developed economies. In what is, or was, essentially symmetry, there had been until 2008 considerable correlation between the size, scope, and speed of any recovery and its antecedent downturn, or even slowdown. The relationship was so striking that it moved Milton [...]

Mugged By Reality; Many Still Yet To Be

By |2017-03-10T17:17:02-05:00March 10th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In August 2014, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer admitted to an audience in Sweden the possibility in some unusually candid terms that maybe they (economists, not Sweden) didn’t know what they were doing. His speech was lost in the times, those being the middle of that year where the Fed having already started to taper QE3 and 4 were [...]

Without Recovery There Is Every Need To Examine The Worst Case

By |2016-05-17T17:48:41-04:00May 17th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is a great deal that is wrong with mainstream economic commentary, starting with its unwavering devotion to orthodox economics and unshakable faith in their “stimulus.” No matter how little is actually stimulated there is never any doubt that the media will simultaneously forget the last one while lavishing praise on the next one. It is, however, the actual economic [...]

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